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Don't know what to call this mix of on-screen action and non-diegetic voiceover at the end of Casino, but it has to be one of the most genius choices in Scorsese's filmography
Explanation for noobs who don't quite understand what's going on...
Mods: does DD tag apply? If not change it. I wrote this in response to someone elsewhere who asked simply:
So they're betting against the company? Like, they have no faith in them? Investing like this makes one feel horrible.
Yeah. There are three ways you can short. 1) You buy an option with a predetermined end date with the RIGHT to sell a stock at a certain price (depending on how much you want to pay determines the price.) If a stock is $10 and you expect it to drop to $5 in 6 months, you might buy a $9, 10 month expiry "put" (right to sell at price) option. This might cost you 50c per share. IF you're even slightly right, ie it drops to any price lower than $8.49 before expiry you made 1c per share. You can also change your mind and sell the option (either more (profit) or less (loss) than 50c/share). IF you're properly right, and it does drop to exactly $5 you make $3.5 per share. If it rises, or drops to any number above $8.50, you lose the price of the option (50c/share). 2) You're a big player. You call your buddies at Pension Fund X42 and say "Hey can I borrow those shares you have for x% interest and return them to you later?" A set timeframe may be set. I don't know for sure, but probably. Anyhow, Pension Fund X42 says "ok" because they aren't looking to sell them, so might as well make some interest on lending them. So you borrow them, and immediately sell them. You pay your daily interest to the pension fund, and you wait. When the price drops, and you decide that you've made enough, you buy them back and return them. You keep the difference in prices whatever that may be, minus the interest. If you're wrong... You're still obliged to return the shares to Pension Fund X42. So at some point you have to decide to eat a loss and buy the shares back. 3) You're a big player and you are ok with a bit of lawbreaking, you Naked Short Sell. This is great because it's cheaper! No interest payments! Here, you simply sell shares you don't have, and buy the imaginary shares you just created back later so that the number of shares on issue doesn't get too far out of whack and you don't get investigated. Any gap between your sell price and buy price is profit or loss depending on which way it goes. What's happened right now is mostly a combination of 2 and 3. I'm sure there is a bit of 1, but 1 only causes predictable losses (Like the cost of playing a hand at a casino. You only lose the amount you bet if the cards don't go your way.) So the risk with 2 and 3 is that because you're obliged to buy back the shares at some point, if they go up, when you have to quit, you have to pay the current market price and your actions can make the price go up even more. Now you're in a short squeeze. You are obliged to buy but the price keeps going up every time you do. It's entirely possible that others see the price going up and buy, so you're now competing to buy a limited number of shares with everyone else. So the price goes higher. Your losses are potentially infinite. What's slightly different between this particular short squeeze and all the others is: 1) The dumb fucks naked short sold AT LEAST 40% more shares than ever existed. They're obliged to buy back more shares than is possible. The only way out of that self-made trap is a complicated mess of desperately buying, returning, rebuying from the people you borrowed them from, and returning them with losses at every step. Imagine if I sold you 10 cars, but only delivered 6. You're standing there with your wtf face and I say "Hey! how much would you sell those 4 cars for?" You can name your price at this point. I pay it. Then I "finish" my "10 car delivery." 2) Retail traders are acting as one single semi-coordinated hive, loosely behaving similarly to what would in prior short squeezes, be a competitor hedge fund. They own a lot of the shares the hedge funds (HFs) NEED to buy - but they're not selling. They're actively cheering for the HFs bankruptcy while watching the price of the stock they hold skyrocket. Only other HF billionaires are allowed to do that and get away with it. . 2a) HFs can be negotiated with. If you're really, really getting bent over and fucked, and you grovel enough, you can usually cut a deal where they stop trying to fuck you. If they won't talk to you, they'll often talk to your bank/brokesome other bigger player that can convince them that your bankruptcy will also cause significant losses or bankruptcy of another party they're not trying to fuck and they might like to have as friends one day. "You quit this, and we'll owe you one." It's always good to have favours to call. . 2b) The self proclaimed retards on WSB can't be negotiated with. They don't need favours. They don't care if you go bankrupt or there's collateral damage. They don't give a fuck about any of them. For the most part they only hold a few hundred shares each max - and also for the most part, they're playing with their own money that they can actually afford to lose even if it hurts for a year or two. How do you negotiate with, or swat a million wasps stinging you? You can't. Edit. Thanks for all the awards guys! I'll soon have enough to make a Tiara and become your Яetard Prince for the day! I was actually expecting posts telling my how wrong I am. I only think I know what the fuck is going on most of the time and usually figure out later that it wasn't. I'd like to thank the academy, and my parents who never believed in me, and Scruffy, my first dog, who, like WSB, played chicken with truck, and, and, and... Also. I figure since this is so popular, I might as well nominate my suggestion for the inevitable u/deepfuckingvalue movie. It's fairly likely to be seen as a sequel to the Wolf of Wall St, so.... "The Fox/Foxes of Main Street" ? Yeah, nah? Edit 2 NOTE To all the people trying to PM me for advice: I have no fucking idea what WILL happen next. I just think I cobbled together enough of what HAS happened to explain it somewhat. Ie: I'm more like a journalist. Would you ask a journalist for stock advice? (please don't answer yes...)
It's here boys and girls! The Cayo Perico DLC has been released!
"Unlike previous Heists, there is no specific style when it comes to approaching Cayo Perico.
Once you’ve gathered the necessary gear, you can choose to complete as much (or as little) set-up and planning as you want – though be warned that these decisions will, in turn, affect the way the action unfolds. If you want to call in an airstrike or use a cutting torch to burn through steel beams, for example, you would be well advised to put the time in beforehand. Once all the groundwork is laid down, you can nail down your final details before approaching Cayo Perico. These choices include how you infiltrate and escape the island, your weapons loadouts, air support, and even the operation’s time of day. As a result, no two approaches are alike on subsequent playthroughs. And repeat visits will allow you to heist valuable artifacts and other valuables as they become available. There is also a load of extra opportunities you can use to play to your advantage, such as breaking into storage lockups to raid hidden stashes of cash and contraband to bolster your bottom-line and fatten up your take. These chances and the tools necessary to complete them will rarely be found in the same place twice – some are only accessible when playing with multiple players, so joining up with friends is very much encouraged." This Megathread will serve as the place to discuss all things related to the DLC. We will be updating this as more information is released, so keep checking back. The Heist works very similarly to the Casino Heist. You have to hack cameras and scope out locations. Important Links: (Added once they become available)
Official Trailer Newswire Article Patch Notes Availability/Size: Playstation - LIVE - 6.8GB Xbox - LIVE - 6.6GB PC - Live - 9.3GB Other Links: DLC release Crew Event info Weekly Update Thread Simple Question Thread Still Slippin' Radio Channel Guide Misc Info: Kosatka(sub) is $2.2 million to start, up to $9.8 million with everything, and IS DRIVEABLE! Two new vehicles available with the Kosatka: Sparrow (Small Helicopter) Can be equipped with machine guns or missiles. Kraken Avisa (Small Sub) Island is not available in Free Mode No New vehicles on SSA or LM at release. These vehicles will be dripfed to us over the coming weeks and months. 6 new vehicles available on release day, the Submarine and 5 more with trade prices unlocked by completing the Heist. Link to new vehicle pics and prices. Winky (Jeep) $825,000 - $1,100,000 Kurtz 31Patrol Boat(Gunboat) $2,216,250 - $2,955,000 RO-86 (Bomber) $3,262,500 - $4,250,000 Annihilator Stealth (Helicopter) $2,902,500 - $3,870,000 Toreador (CaSub) $3,660,000 Longfin (Boat) $2,125,000 New weapons: Perico Pistol Military Rifle - $397,500 Combat Shotgun - $295,000
The Free Vehicle from the Heist Challenge will be Available this Friday and will be the Dinka Veto Classic go-kart. You MUST claim the vehicle between the 18th and 20th of December or it will no longer be free.
The /wallstreetbets GME retail investors vs the 0.1% situation has lead me to a place of clarity. The game is rigged, and the owners of the system will react with haste and break any laws they must to protect their cartel. For those not following the event - Retail investors, realised the shares of GME and some other companies were heavily shorted and in short supply, so they started buying in the hope of forcing a short squeeze (whereby the holder of the shorts will then have to buy more stock to cover their shorts, sending the price through the roof, an example is Volkswagen [VW] in the 2000's). This is perfectly legal. - the plan worked, GME went from $2 to $470 in a short space of time. - Melvin Capital, a Hedge fund took a massive (likely $6 billion) short position in GME and faced closure if the bet went against them, they were losing money at a fast rate and got a bail out last week by other wall street Hedge funds. - Melvin Capital then went on CNBC and other networks to reveal they had closed their short positions, it's highly unlikely as the options volume did not back up their claim, they were simply spreading disinformation, again this is perfectly legal - the retail investors at /wallstreetbets simply would not give up, they kept buying, the end goal could have seen the stock reach $5K based on the VW scenario. - the 0.1% moved to then protect the 0.1% from losing money by using the stock brokerages they own or control(Robinhood, TD, IB and all the other big players) to firstly prevent the retail investors buying more stock, you could simply not buy these stocks, you could only sell, some companies even forcibly closed down open options positons even in the absense of margin calls, so your account is in good standing with enough liquidity and they decide which stock you can have and which you can not, in this time big institutions are allowed to buy as much of this stock as they desire, just the retail traders are locked out of the casino. This is highly illegal and known as market manipulation, it also flies in the face of the idea that we have a free market. - people like AOC, Elon Musk, Chamath have all come out on the site of the retail traders at /wallstreetbets - Interactive Brokers chairman and founder Thomas Peterffy goes on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” an is literally weeping, explaining he feels hurt that his large, moneyed 0.1% friends are losing money due to the retail investors, oh the horror, how can these small investors make my friends lose money? Don't they know the implications of their actions? The horror. The guys at /wallstreetbets simply did not understand that in our world only old money gets to make real money, the little guy must be shut down and should never have a slice of the action, all he gets is inflation and a 9 to 5 job, plus side hustle if he/she's lucky. If the little guy ever finds a way to gain an advantage the loophole is quickly closed. - the SEC Chair then threatens to investigate the redditors on /wallstreetbets by tracking down their IP numbers with the help of reddit - The /wallstreetbets discord server is banned. All the years I talked trash about bitcoin, I apologise, now I genuinely understand the value of having a system not controlled by the government, where they can not on a whim decide to inflate the money supply and bail out their friends, while you carry the load in the form of additional taxes and inflation.
r/WallStreetBets vs Hedge Funds megathread for Thursday Jan 27. Discuss this dramatic happening here
Since this is a dramawave of an event, we will be making daily megathreads for as long as needed. If you'd like to add something, drop a reply here. We also apologize for the typo in the title. This thread is for Thursday, Jan 28th.
WSB USERS: PLS DON'T SPAM!
This is a subreddit for the general reddit audience to discuss drama, so please don't clog up the thread. If you want to participate, make sure to follow our rules to avoid having your comments removed. Background WallStreetBets is a subreddit that treats "retail investing" (ie, amateur investing and amateur stock trades) like a casino. It's been featured here a few times in the past. (Examples: 1, 2, 3) WSB users will sometimes pick a stock for silly or shitposty reasons to place their bets on. Gamestop stock (ticker name: GME) has been one of them. (We would appreciate some links to older examples WSB hyping GME stock if anyone has them). EDIT: Christopher-Nolan has provided us this example from a month ago Our layman's explanation of a short squeeze is if someone "shorts" a stock, they have essentially made a bet its value will drop. But if their bet goes wrong, they will be forced to buy the stock they shorted at painfully high prices. Newspaper's explanation here. Another simple way of summarizing it is that some hedge funds got into a pissing contest with an internet forum, except millions of dollars are on the line, and the hedge funds shorting GME were in a very vulnerable position, and their competitors in this match pride themselves on alleged mental deficiency. As the short squeeze doomsday scenario for these hedge funds has seemed more likely, the drama and excitement have overwhelmed social media, and a few WSB users are in a position to become millionaires. Another reason this is making the national news is that it's unprecedented. Although short squeezes have happened, it's never been seemingly spurred by retail investors on social media. Now that the drama has hit the main stream it's starting lots of arguments around the internet about the stock market in general and what it really means to "manipulate" it, and what the role of the SEC and other regulators should be. WSB was featured on SRD this week first for drama about a mod-sponsored twitter account, and then for making international news for the upcoming GME short squeeze. Wednesday night update WallStreetBets went private briefly on Jan 27, and is now back open. The closure seems to have been triggered by Discord's ban of the WSB server. Meanwhile on twitter, the mod-sponsored account is back online and trying to call out WSB mod impersonators Thursday 11 am update courtesy of No_Fuel_ and Existential_Owl On the morning of Thurs, Jan 28, the retail trading platform Robinhood no longer allowed its users to purchase GME and other stocks popular on WSB, causing a huge uproar against Robinhood on wallstreetbets (examples 1, 2, 3) and twitter (examples 1, 2, 3, 4) 1 pm EST A class action lawsuit against Robinhood has been filed 2 pm EST WSB begins posting about Robinhood selling users' shares without their consent. According to the commenters, if you buy stock with borrowed money ("on margin"), your brokerage can force you to sell when the share price drops. DeepFuckingValue, a redditor who bought 50,000 shares for cheap last year, is still holding. If he'd sold a portion of his shares yesterday he could have been a multi millionaire. WSB users congratulate him for "holding the line" under the hopes that if they all wait to sell, they will make the short squeeze even more expensive for the shorters. 11 pm EST Posts relating to the short squeeze currently crowd the front page of reddit. Reuters is estimating the short sellers have taken over 70 billion in losses so far. AOC hosted a twitch stream in which former reddit CEO Alexis Ohanian appeared as a guest
Disclaimer: I'm not a professional in this field. This is not financial advice. I'm not even owning GME or any stocks for that matter but I'm fascinated by this corrupt casino called stock market. For every GME stock people buy through the wrong brokers, a GME stock becomes available for borrowing. We can pump GME forever but there is no day of reckoning to fight for and the hedgies know that. They know that interest is already fading and weak hands are selling and they don't even have to buy those stocks. They are happy when it's falling as that's the plan all along. And even if all short squeezers went to more honest brokers that don't lend out your stocks (or at least give you the interest paid on that lending which must be insanely high), this attack could be more effective but hedgies could still leverage up and up and up. There are probably just two ways for the squeeze to still succeed:
Pump it to insane levels where hedgies can't cover it anymore for real. If you had asked anybody a month ago if $400 would be insane, he would probably have approved though, so where is this "insane"? $5k? $50k?
GME steps up and locks in its value, preventing insolvency indefinitely.
People own twice as many stocks as there are in total, so as soon as hedgies try to deleverage, they have to buy GME. Twice. Just to get out of this bet. I think the knock-out failed but going for the full twelve rounds can still work but not without GME taking action. With GME taking action, a knock-out could be tried again. Am I wrong? How long do you think shorters can stay afloat? At which price point? How can I buy GME without my broker turning around, lending out my share???
Since The Weeknd is performing at the Super Bowl Halftime show, I thought it’d be nice to post a little guide to his discography for anyone interested in looking to do a deep dive into his work. I would’ve posted this the day of the event, but I assume that some people would probably like to go through it over the weekend. This shares a direct overview of his released material, talking about his career and the background of the music, the videos, the meanings and all. I’ve written this from a pop perspective, keeping in mind that his history might be fairly new for general pop fans. I also go into the storyline of the red suit character, if your interested in catching up on that narrative before the Halftime show (which will continue the story), I’ve listed the chronological order below followed by an explanation of that narrative. I wanna be clear that the interpretations/theories are not conclusive. Abel rarely shares the metaphors or meanings behind his music. This is based on widely based on fan discussion/mutual interpretation. Fans can feel free to expand on anything in the comments. It is important to know about Abel's backstory to get a certain perspective of where he’s coming from, especially when discussing the songs that deal with substance abuse. These recent articles cover his early years really well and share an up-to-date point of view of his success. Variety 2020 Billboard 2021 - Also a good source for getting to know his team. So, an essential TL;DR is this: Abel Tesfaye came from a broken home, he was born to Ethiopian immigrant parents who split up when Tesfaye was less than seven. He then lived with his mother and grandmother, only rarely seeing his father but having a nice impression of him. His drug addiction started as soon as he was a high schooler, he turned to shoplifting to pay for this need of various substances. Soon he dropped out of high school, leaving his home the same weekend, which would later inspire his stage name, The Weeknd. The name is reference/homage to the weekend his life changed. Quick side note, I didn’t think this post would nearly reach the character limit. So I’ve cut out excess detail and lists of producers (with the exception of After Hours since we’re in that era). Table of contents
XO.
House of Balloons.
Thursday.
Echoes of Silence.
Trilogy.
Kiss Land.
King of the Fall.
Beauty Behind The Madness.
Starboy.
My Dear Melancholy.
After Hours.
XO.
XO is the record label that The Weeknd and co. created in order to publish the first mixtape (House of Balloons) and the ones that would follow afterwards. XO has a lot of meanings that have to do with what went into the music and what still goes into it. XO is what the fans call themselves, popularly with the phrase XO Till We OD (shortened to XOTWOD); another way of saying “we’re ride or die for The Weeknd and his team.” While some argue that it could mean anything since there isn’t clear meaning to it, fans continue to associate the abbreviation with ecstasy (X) and oxycontin (O). That definition stems from XOTWOD, fans assume it’s true because of the team’s history of drug usage. While others take it as it’s classical definition “hugs and kisses” because of the consistent lyrical nature of The Weeknd’s songs. Overtime the definition of XO is simply known as: the fans, the crew, and the label. The Weeknd is more than just one person, he comes with XO. For the sake of clarity in this writeup, I’m going to refer to his crew as XO and the fans as “the fans.” XO still serves as a record label, the current roster is The Weeknd, Belly, Nav, and Black Atlass. It remains The Weeknd’s record label and was his first label before becoming a subsidiary of Republic Records. Throughout his career, The Weeknd has worked with Illangelo, a Canadian producer who’s work the fans adore. Carlo “Illangelo” Montagnese was one of main the producers on The Weeknd’s Trilogy, he’s credited on each track. The fan base claims his work to be some of the most notable artistry in The Weeknd’s discography. Their work together continued with Beauty Behind The Madness, Illangelo worked on seven tracks for that album. He then returned for After Hours working on another seven tracks. DaHeala, another Canadian producer, is another significant factor in The Weeknd’s music. Jason “DaHeala” Quenneville worked as lead producer on Kiss Land. He returned to work on six tracks for The Weeknd’s Beauty Behind The Madness, including the hit Earned It. DaHeala returned as a writer for six of the songs on Starboy. Then DaHeala worked on nine After Hours tracks, and worked as the only producewriter alongside The Weeknd for bonus tracks Missed You and Final Lullaby.
This is a happy house. We’re happy here. (House of Balloons/Glass Table Girls)
One of the most iconic title tracks of all time. House of Balloons is about a lifestyle of drugs, sex, and partying; all in effort to drown out self-doubt. It comes from a place of wanting to make it big while doing what you can to survive, all while pretending everything’s alright. The mixtape describes various sorts of women, how they’ve had impacted the life of someone who’s already down on his luck. Fans often refer to House of Balloons as The Weeknd’s best work. The mixtape was the first introduction the world got of XO, and it was one hell of a way to make an impression. It’s personal for the fans and Abel because it’s the only piece of work known to be based on his life. At the end of the day he’s a songwriter, with many of his albums he creates scenarios and world that he likes to explore through the music. But House of Balloons is known to be based entirely on his life. It remains The Weeknd’s most critically acclaimed work. House of Balloons was crafted through the influences of Hip-Hip/Indie-Rock with the main focus on R&B. Through the genius of Ilangelo, the record was—and is—mesmerizing capturing the essence of a lifestyle that The Weeknd described as “anti-everything.” House of Balloons assisted The Weeknd in gaining the attention of Republic Records, which would then host The Weeknd’s own label XO. Though hesitant at first, XO decided to partner with Republic after the co-founding brothers Monte and Avery Lipman kept coming back to Toronto solely for The Weeknd. House of Balloons received three videos, The Knowing, Wicked Games and Twenty Eight. The Knowing was the very first video The Weeknd made, so of course it’d be something other-worldly; it essentially reflects the song itself but in a sci-fi setting. Twenty Eight represents Abel’s life after fame but also his remorse of letting captivating women into his life. Fun fact— House of Balloons is an actual place in Toronto, it was where him and his crew lived after he dropped out of high school. They’d host parties, call girls, do drugs, and to make it less depressing they’d fill it with balloons.
Thursday consists of the same themes as HoB; sex and drugs. But there’s a twist, he’s in a semi-relationship with this girl Valerie. She’s the only one on his mind, even though they meet only one day of the week, any guesses on what day that could be? Through The Weeknd’s phenomenal voice and the insane production, we’re also presented with this story of a toxic relationship where Valerie used to have the upper hand but she no longer does when she falls for The Weeknd. While Thursday isn’t entirely about the relationship of The Weeknd and Valerie, it consists of reflections to Abel’s life after the release of House of Balloons. The song Rolling Stone notably has a double meaning, in which Abel asks his fans if they’ll stick with him when he gets mainstream appeal and decides to change his sound. The track Valerie wasn’t on the original release of Thursday, it added when Trilogy was released. Ending the mixtape with Heaven or Las Vegas meant that The Weeknd’s actions with and without Valerie were a result of his fatherless childhood, making him push anyone away. That meaning behind Thursday doesn’t change when Valerie is added to the track list, it just means that both want the toxic relationship back. The Zone (feat. Drake) was the first feature The Weeknd had on any of his work, the video for it was released in November of 2012. Rolling Stone had also received a video in October of 2012. Both were directed by The Weeknd and reflect the two different aspects of Thursday. The Zone has Valerie living it up in the House of Balloons. And Rolling Stone has The Weeknd doing a photoshoot for Trilogy, reflective of the song itself. Fun Fact— the female voice heard in Lonely Star is The Weeknd’s, he pitched his voice to make it sound like a woman’s.
Laisse tomber les filles. Un jour c'est toi qu'on laissera. [Leave the girls alone. One day it’ll be you they will leave.] (Montreal)
Out of a dark introductory into the early life of The Weeknd, Echoes of Silence is the darkest work of his Trilogy. Let’s be honest the story here isn’t entirely ethical at times but makes for one hell of a mixtape. Similar to Thursday, Echoes of Silence follows a storyline. After accumulating success, The Weeknd gains the attention of various women. There was this one woman (D.D.) who he liked but she initially rejected him (Montreal). The woman came back to him for his fame status and evidently fell in love with him (Outside), but now that he’s got the upper hand he treats him like a groupie (XO/The Host) and lets... bad things happen to her; she’s gotta pass a test before she can get with him. This test is either drugs or his crew (Initiation). He ultimately tells this woman that he’s not exactly longterm-relationship material, perhaps because her love is temporary (Same Old Song), because he’s Next. With the end of Echoes of Silence (originally ending on the title track) the listener is left to wonder why The Weeknd left her if he’d simply want her to stay. As a side note— Initiation should not be condoned. It remains true that The Weeknd is a songwriter and the progression of time has changed perspectives. But a song that makes such suggestions as Initiation should not be ethically/morally claimed or celebrated. The mixtape follows The Weeknd’s lifestyle after he’s gained all this success, he’s still the same person but now he’s gotten everything he wanted. Some tracks such as The Fall continue to emphasize his journey into stardom and his acceptance of fame being temporary. With the added Till Dawn (Here Comes The Sun), The Weeknd acknowledges the changes in his life, realizing that the old lifestyle is no longer there for him or his past lovers. Echoes of Silence is known as an underrated gem of The Weeknd’s discography, it’s well received by fans and critically acclaimed but often brushed under the rug in discussion of his work. A lot of fans and casual listeners play the mixtapes through Trilogy rather than their respective albums. This often leads to people not playing EoS either at all or only the first few tracks, this is predominantly due to the nature of the compilation being nearly three hours long. Fun fact— D.D. is a cover of Michael Jackson’s iconic Dirty Diana. Fans have named the woman in Echoes of Silence Diana because of this track. Various theories argue that the mixtape itself is based on the Dirty Diana itself with exaggerations of the truth, or whether or not it’s a story The Weeknd crafted based on the song.
Trilogy is a compilation of The Weeknd’s mixtapes, House of Balloons, Thursday, and Echoes of Silence. These three mixtapes were released 3-4 months apart from one another for free digital download in 2011, they gained quite a lot of attention from various industry executives. Prior to the release of Trilogy, The Weeknd featured on Drake’s Take Care with Crew Love. The song was Abel’s first exposure to a Rap crowd/Rap fans, more people began listening to his music after the release of Take Care. The Weeknd then featured on Wiz Khalifa’s Remember You, which served as the second single off Wiz Khalifa’s O.N.I.F.C. Following those two releases, The Weeknd released Wicked Games as the first single off Trilogy. Trilogy was formed after The Weeknd came under Republic Records’ management. The compilation album reached a debut/peak position of 4 on the Billboard 200 while reaching number one on the US Top R&B/Hip-Hop Albums chart. It’s a well received album with the highlight said to be House of Balloons, which arguably went on to influence various sorts of R&B music of the 2010s. Videos for Trilogy
I went from starin' at the same four walls for 21 years. To seein' the whole world in just 12 months. (Kiss Land)
Kiss Land is based on The Weeknd’s tour life. Visiting unfamiliar places gave Abel horror movie vibes. A guy who used to own the city (Toronto) he lived in is now a small fish in the ocean of the entire world. The Weeknd’s first studio album was a great introduction into the sound he would soon get well acquainted with. While continuing the R&B sound with the essence of Dark Wave, the album explores emptiness and regret throughout the lyrics—or what pop fans could categorize as dark pop—. The Japanese aesthetic used for various videos and the single covers/booklet reflects the themes of feeling overwhelmed by such a loud world that there’s no point in being if you don’t belong. The album explores the real-world and the women in it as well as regrets regarding past actions, namely letting go of women who could’ve been the one in Adaptation. The Weeknd attempts to find that satisfaction in other women and past lovers, but accidentally falls for a sex worker in Belong To The World. With Wanderlust he accepts and expresses that love in the modern world isn’t entirely possible. While continuing to tour the world he enjoys these new experiences with XO (Live For feat. Drake), as well as the new women in his life (Kiss Land). And when he’s back home, he accepts the loss of the relationship he cherished. Kiss Land debuted and peaked at number two on the Billboard 200. It was fairly acclaimed but gained a massive cult following. There were four videos for made for the album, the title track, Belong To the World, Live For (feat. Drake), and Pretty. Those four songs received interesting visuals that kept up with their respective themes while Belong To the World/Kiss Land got visuals that matched the aesthetic of the album. To this day fans ask Abel for a part two to the horror-movie-inspired album after he said it’s the only album he would have a sequel for. Videos for Kiss Land Fun Fact— The video for Kiss Land on YouTube is an extremely edited version of the actual video shot for the song. The directors cut further explores the erotic-horror themes if the album.
Driving by the streets we used to walk through like a triumph. (King of the Fall)
These next few song were released between the Kiss Land and Beauty Behind the Madness era. Some fans would classify them as part of the Beauty Behind the Madness era—I’d say the same tbh—but they stand apart on the basis of success and acclaim. It’s a transition between The Weeknd being an underrated R&B musician to being a mainstream artist with massive recognition and appreciation. The first of these four songs is King of the Fall. A fan favourite and a standout in The Weeknd’s discography. This is one of The Weeknd’s few Rap tracks, it gained a lot of attention within the Rap sphere. It was the way in which XO would announce that they’ve made it, little did they know that this was just the start. Prior to the release of Beauty Behind the Madness (BBTM), The Weeknd gained mainstream attention. The Weeknd’s exposure to mainstream music was uphill, it wasn’t overnight. The first taste of BBTM came from Often, a song that reflected the themes of sex that Abel was known for. The track was released more than a year before BBTM’s release and had made it onto the trackless unlike King of the Fall. Slowly but surely The Weeknd gained exposure, his main sources of exposure were through a collaboration and a soundtrack. Most pop fans heard about The Weeknd through his hit collaboration with Ariana Grande, Love Me Harder. The collab was made through Republic when The Weeknd said he wanted more than what he had gotten through Kiss Land. Ariana and Abel had formed a real bond cough The Hills cough, their bond assisted the song in becoming a memorable hit for both artists. Love Me Harder was a top ten hit on the Billboard Hot 100. Later that year, The Weeknd was featured on the Fifty Shades of Grey soundtrack with Earned It, as well as Where You Belong. Earned It became a massive hit peaking at 3 on the Billboard Hot 100 and receiving an Oscar nomination for The Weeknd; a massive milestone for XO. Earned It kept up with Abel’s signature lyrics but the production differed heavily from the sort of R&B he was known for. Videos from that era
I'm that ***** with the hair singin' 'bout poppin' pills, fuckin' bitches, livin' life so trill. (Tell Your Friends)
Following the success of Love Me Harder and Earned It, the Beauty Behind the Madness era began with The Hills. This was The Weeknd’s first number one on the Billboard Hot 100. Along with the video, The Hills became an addictive classic. The production and lyrics mirror a mature version of the sound that was originally found on Trilogy. It was truly in keeping with The Weeknd’s character, the only difference was his haircut. Next came Can’t Feel My Face, a Max Martin production that differed greatly from anything The Weeknd put out in the past. In past songs, Abel had expressed his fear of losing his following if he went mainstream simultaneously asking his fans if they’d stay. He repeats that sentiment in the Can’t Feel My Face video. The sound has changed, the lyrics stay the same but now he’s a pop-star. The song became a hit as it reached number one on the Billboard Hot 100. With this massive bop previous fans still stayed, The Weeknd becoming a pop singer didn’t at all alter his image or sound; he mastered it. In The Night and Acquainted were released as singles on the same day, the were the only singles to come after the release of Beauty Behind The Madness. The former received a music video treatment that followed the theme of the song itself while also starring Abel’s girlfriend at the time, Bella Hadid. Acquainted was robbed of a video even though Abel had shown off the fact that a video was in development; the song kept in the tone of The Weeknd’s work prior to BBTM. Beauty Behind the Madness captures a Hollywood-based reality that The Weeknd came to understand: the dark aspects of your life will continue to follow you wherever you are. Real Life, Losers (feat. Labrinth), Tell Your Friends, Dark Times (feat. Ed Sheeran), and Prisoner (feat. Lana Del Rey) all capture a nihilistic view of a dream achieved. Most of the videos of Beauty Behind The Madness have a mysterious white man. He’s featured in The Hills, Can’t Feel My Face, and Tell Your Friends. That man represents the devil. Throughout his journey in those videos, (The Hills) Abel runs into the devil after his car crash, (Can’t Feel My Face) he’s at the club then lights him on fire. The significance behind the fire could be selling his soul to the devil, BBTM is about Hollywood and a popular Hollywood myth is that celebrities sell their souls to the devil in exchange for fame. So in the Can’t Feel My Face video, Abel changes his sound to Pop (from R&B) thus leaving his signature sound in order to become famous, everyone starts enjoying his music once he’s sold his soul. Then we see The Weeknd burying himself in Tell Your Friends, perhaps leaving the old Abel behind after the deal with the devil. However, instead of thanking the devil, Abel takes his revenge and shoots him. But wait, there’s more! The album trailer for BBTM features the devil burning a billboard with The Weeknd’s face on it, revealing Beauty Behind The Madness. HOWEVER, the final cut for the video features the devil being arrested while The Weeknd watches. This is a more realistic form of karma that the devil gets. Videos for BBTM
If I could, I'd trade it all, trade it for a halo. And she said that she'll pray for me, I said, "It's too late for me.” (Ordinary Life)
After the massive success of Beauty Behind the Madness, there was a lot of hype around what The Weeknd would do next; evidently he decided to explore Pop. The fandom he had gained wasn’t entirely based in the Pop sphere, his fans consisted of general Rap fans, but Starboy attracted the Pop audience. Initially, most of his older fans couldn’t get behind Starboy, it differed greatly from the previous sound. It was crazy to think that the guy who made Trilogy managed to make such a Pop-centric album. But this was Abel expressing his versatility. Since this is where most pop fans found out about Abel’s work and became fans I won’t talk too much about the singles, rather more about the album itself. His work with Daft Punk cemented this album in an efficient mix between Pop and R&B, where Beauty Behind the Madness was more R&B with Pop, Starboy was considered Pop with R&B. Beyond the genres, Starboy explores two evident themes. One being his life with fame and recognition. The next being his love life in Hollywood, this aspect of the album came from his relationship with Bella Hadid which ended after the release of the album. The cross became the symbol for that era and appeared in the album’s photoshoot as well as the videos. There was never any conclusive word on the use of the cross but there are various theories about it, something to note is that Abel was raised Christian, it could perhaps be a reflection of his past. The cross he uses to destroy his accolades (Starboy video) is assisting him rather than something that’s holding him back. Abel’s upbringing was rough but now he’s celebrating it rather than feeling bad for himself. The cross continues to come up in the Party Monster video, this time it’s in the party house he’s making his way through. Then it shows up in the video for Reminder, this time in the form of his merch, the people wearing it are perhaps representative of his fans. Then we see it in the False Alarm video, both Abel and the girl are wearing it; the notable thing being that Abel holds his cross up before dying. Then in the brilliant video for Secrets, after giving up on the girl he’s with he leaves the building to find a giant cross. And finally in the I Feel It Coming video, The Weeknd sports a shiny cross necklace, and Daft Punk find it years and years after Abel froze. The videos tell us that the cross is an evident piece of his story. This could mean that his past will always be with him, no matter what sort of fame he’s experiencing he’ll always be who he once was. Also, I’m gonna take this moment to once again the genius that is the Secrets (both the song and the video). Yes it’s my favourite song/video off of Starboy but it’s so underrated. Videos for Starboy, Secrets video bottom right Fun Fact— Most demos of the tracks on Starboy weren’t as pop as they became, they started off R&B but became pop after production.
They said our love is just a game, I don't care what they say. But I'ma drink the pain away, I'll be back to my old ways. (Privilege)
Oof (but in a good way, this whole thing is a bop). For this one I’m gonna talk extensively about The Weeknd’s relationships, which personally feels really invasive but it’s but it’s essential when talking about these sad boy anthems. Beyond that I’d just like to state that though they are part of the narrative both Bella Hadid and Selena Gomez deserve respect/privacy. So when it comes to Pop music fans I think it’s safe to say that we all know a lot about this one. My Dear Melancholy (MDM) came after the very public relationship of The Weeknd and Selena Gomez. However it’s not just about Selena, some songs reflect his relationship with Bella Hadid (whom he got back with a month after MDM’s release). My Dear Melancholy consists with The Weeknd’s exploration/mastery of merging Pop and R&B together. The EP was praised by fans for its lyrics and production, many went on to theorize that it was his most personal project since House of Balloons. The EP was the shortest album to reach number one on the Billboard 200. My Dear Melancholy and fan conspiracies; name a better duo. The first theory being that the EP is entirely about Selena Gomez which wasn’t too much of a mystery since the lyric “I almost cut a piece of myself for your life” exists. Not only did MDM come after Abel’s relationship with Selena Gomez but also after his relationship with Bella Hadid. As far as fans were aware those two relationships were the most important relationships Abel had ever been in. In theory, the songs about Bella and Selena can be categorized. Call Out My Name, Try Me, and Privilege are likely about Selena. Wasted Times, and Hurt You are likely about Bella. Leaving I Was Never There to act as an introspective look into The Weeknd’s life, basically making him hop back on his vices for comfort. Another popular theory was that My Dear Melancholy was the first of another trilogy. This rumour was widely believed due to the comma at the end of the title on the album cover. But the fans soon gained a real reason to believe this theory, since the CEO of XO (the record label), Sal had liked an Instagram post that featured the cover and alleged date. Since Trilogy is a fan favourite this conspiracy spread like wild fire, so much so that fake titles and covers were made. The name of this trilogy would be: (1)My Dear Melancholy, (2)We’re Alone Together, (3)Abel. Only one song served as a single for the EP. Call Out My Name was released nearly two months prior to the actual release of the album, it debuted/peaked at number four on the Billboard Hot 100. The mysterious video captures The Weeknd in various atmospheric places that reflect the tone of the EP, a haunting yet unexplained reality that the listener is to reflect on. From the cover, to the music, to the video, to lyrics, My Dear Melancholy is an introspective reflection of heartbreak. Call out my name video
After Hours comes after success but references two lows in The Weeknd’s life. The album welcomes darkness and leads the listener towards a dead-end. The Weeknd’s past two albums (Beauty Behind The Madness and Starboy) ended on hopeful notes, they left the listener with a sense of hope but all hope his lost with After Hours. Fans compare After Hours to House of Balloons—a rare occurrence considering House of Balloons’ acclaim—arguing that both albums are on the same level. Debate continues on whether or not both albums are on the same caliber. The belief that After Hours stems from reality does a lot to help its side of the argument. The era began with Mercedes-Benz commercial that featured Blinding Lights, that was our first taste of the everlasting bop. Heartless was premiered on an episode of Memento Mori hours before its release on the 27 of November (2019), Blinding Lights was released two days later. Both videos were as brain melting as promised and the served as the tip of the iceberg. After Hours was released nine days after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, there was a massive risk in releasing an album that would not have a lot of promotion after it’s release (other than magazine coverage). There was no telling whether or not people would pay attention to the album during the height of the fear surrounding the pandemic, but it was a massive success. After Hours debuted at number one on the Billboard 200, with singles Heartless and Blinding Lights topping the Billboard Hot 100. The album is layered with haunting productions that remains predominantly R&B but dives deep into Pop with some of the tracks. Max Martin produced the massive hit Blinding Lights as well as In Your Eyes, Save Your Tears, Hardest to Love, and Scared to Live which samples Elton John’s Your Song. Other notable producers include Metro Boomin who worked on the hit Heartless as well as Escape from LA, Faith, and Until I Bleed Out. With Kevin Parker on the interlude Repeat After Me. Beyond the production are the narrative driven lyrics. In theory the album references two significant events in Abel’s life, his second breakup with Bella Hadid and his arrest in Las Vegas. The latter was due to his misbehaviour; in January 2015 he punched a cop in Vegas, lmao. Which means that After Hours is a recollection of The Weeknd’s first few years in LA. He merges the concept of his breakup with the idea of being an upcoming star, feeling free in the city of lights all while diving deep into the meaninglessness of those lights. While After Hours starts with loneliness and a second chance it leads up to Abel returning to his vices of lust. In Alone Again his loneliness caught up to him and he’s asking for a second chance. He acknowledges his mistakes and situation in Too Late/Hardest to Love, in Scared to Live his ex then returns to him for a second time. He remembers his past ways in Snowchild and the way in which it lead to better days, but where do you go after such highs? In Escape From LA he faces the superficial reality of Hollywood, glad that he got that he got back with his ex, while continuing to question if it’s worth it. But he fucks up the second chance when she pulls up to the studio. Who is she? Much like the other mysteries surrounding The Weeknd’s music, we may never know. Is it all more of The Weeknd’s songwriting ability or is it driven by reality? Fans found a merge between the two to be more accurate, After Hours is about heartbreak and a return to the vices that held The Weeknd back. Heartless is when The Weeknd is once again back to his ways, he may have been in a serious relationship but after throwing that away he spirals back to the way he once was. It’s sad but it’s one hell of a song. Speaking of brilliant songs, Faith is when Abel admits that he’s back on his vices, he states that he needs his ex back with him till the end; he’s back to self-loathing. So when he says he’s blinded by the lights, there’s two meanings to it. The Faith outro tells us that he’s in a car with flashing lights, a cop car (as confirmed by Abel) to be exact. Then Blinding Lights tells us that while he’s watching the bright lights of Vegas pass him by he calls out for the girl that he regrets losing. That is the peak of the After Hours narrative. He’s behaving badly over the loss of the girl he loved and is now at the worst position trying to find her and gain her trust for a third time. Following Blinding Lights is In Your Eyes, this is where The Weeknd vows not to judge her; he can see right through her but will never do anything to make her upset. Does this mean their back together? Not exactly. Save Your Tears details a sort of moving-on that The Weeknd isn’t ready for but tries to help her move on, blind to his own inability to move on. Does it work? Not really. Repeat After Me (Interlude) shows that he’s still trying to convince himself that he’s unfazed by the loss of a meaningful relationship. Then you hear a true masterpiece. The title track is a spiral into true regret and an apology for his actions, he admits that his ex girlfriend is the only reason he lives. In a dark lonely city she’s the only one keeping him sane. But his pleas fail, Until I Bleed Out is when The Weeknd no longer wants her in his life so much so that he wants to erase his memory of anything related to her. The bonus tracks then echo the final sentiment. It’s one sad ass album, ain’t it. But here’s where the Red Suit Character comes in. Shoutout to the makeup department The album isn’t the only narrative to follow with After Hours. The videos for the album follow their own sort of narrative. The story follows an unnamed guy that goes by “red suit character” according to The Weeknd. There’s a lot of confusion and endless theories surrounding this character’s story, after The Weeknd confirmed that it’s about a decent into Hollywood culture it makes more sense… kind of. I’m gonna discuss the storyline without talking about the movies that have influenced it, this way the focus remains on the character. The order of these videos is Heartless / Blinding Lights / Blinding Lights (Live on Kimmel)* / After Hours short film / In Your Eyes / Until I Bleed Out / Snowchild / Too Late / Live at AMAs* / Save Your Tears *Though all live performances could count as part of the narrative, these one relate directly with the videos that follow. He’s is first seen in Vegas with Metro Boomin (Heartless), intoxicated on various substances. He dives deeper into his high until he licks a frog, after that he faces the true effects of this high. He’s frightened by the result and runs far away from Vegas. (Blinding Lights) He’s then found in LA, where he’s dancing in the street, hypnotized by the singer, beat up by guards, and races past all those bright lights in his Benz. Ultimately realizing the shallowness of the Los Angeles fantasy. (Blinding Lights Live on Kimmel) We then find him performing Blinding Lights live, while he attempts to find more reason in within the madness city; he couldn’t find it on the streets so he goes to the stage. (After Hours short film) Even then there’s no meaning to anything in the city, he mindlessly wanders into the depth of the subway where he’s dragged by the reality of it all and ends up possessed. (In Your Eyes) After being possessed he chases the woman whose boyfriend he just murdered, she runs into a club falls deeper into the After Hours fantasy, in a successful attempt to defend herself she beheads the red suit character and dances all over LA with his head, iconic behaviour. (Until I Bleed Out) Then in an ethereal dreamscape, red suit character finds himself in a House of Balloons. He’s trying to escape, but the people there keep pulling him in; he’s getting higher while observing Glass Table Girls. He spirals into the antarctic, the other side of the world. From Heatless to this point in his story, his vices lead him back to the lowest point in Abel’s life. Is it Hell, Heaven or Las Vegas? (Snowchild) He relives his career up until the point where his story began. Considering he’s dead, his life basically flashed before his eyes. (Too Late) LA girls find the red suit character’s head and live their best life. They wanna have sex with him so they find the best boy parts by calling up a stripper who could be the body. The stitch the head up with the body and do what they want. But now he’s brought back to life. (Live at AMAs) He’s had work done… He went in to get his nose fixed and the doctor said “you sure that’s all you want?” The red suit character’s face is healing while he tries to celebrate his life on top of a bridge. (Save Your Tears) Surrounded by a masked cult he debut’s his new face. Do they like it? Are they impressed? Not instantly, their masks translate no expression so how’s he to know? Is any of this worth it? Nope red suit character continues to die inside. He finds a maskless girl in the crowd, she’s lively unlike the rest; but even then, nothing on the inside nothing on the outside. He wants death again, somehow a second chance with this city is still pointless. He tries to kill himself via the girl and himself but it’s all a facade; theatrics. His story continues but that’s all we know so far. The videos make a lot of film references. This post by explain these references very well, as well as past album references here (part one) and here (part two). After Hours is inspired by a lot of movies, since Abel is in fact a cinephile. The main movies that inspired the aesthetic and storytelling are believed to be Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas (1998), Casino (1995), Joker (2019), Uncut Gems (2020), and After Hours (1985). The album tells two sad narratives but remains one of The Weeknd’s best works yet. He’s expanded his videography and enhanced the interest of people who casually enjoy his music and of course his fans. But the era isn’t over, by the time this is posted his Super Bowl Halftime show is yet to happen. And it’ll continue the red suit character’s story. Videos for After Hours (so far) Fun Fact—The Heartless video features a reference to Thursday. When he’s trying to run from Vegas, a sign behind him flashes “Heartless / Heaven or Las Vegas.” This could be a reference to Abel running from his past, after all Heartless is about him returning to his vices.
END.
Thank you for reading this, again, I didn’t realize it would end up being this long. But I hope this this served as a nice refresher for any fans who wanted to revisit Abel’s work before the Super Bowl. And I really hope that anyone interested in getting into his music finds this helpful. Once again, the theories/interpretations mentioned aren’t conclusive, they’re widely based on fan discussion/mutual interpretation. Due to the character limit I couldn’t add too links to the albums, so here are some artist links. Apple Music | Spotify | YouTube | The Weeknd’s Shop | Tidal | Genius
FOR EVERYONE NEW TO INVESTING: A COMPREHENSIVE BREAKDOWN OF TRADING AND MANIPULATION STRATEGIES!
Current Conditions of the Market: Let me be clear: this is not the typical conditions of the market where stocks fluctuate double and triple digit percentages per day. There’s a place for that - the casino. In recent weeks, herds of new traders are pouring into the trading scene hoping to get a piece of the volatile market that has turned the rags to riches, or the other way around. The stock market as a whole, under normal conditions, moves gradually in both directions, guided by trends, innovation, speculation, earnings report, and financial changes. What we are in right now is a hysteria-filled environment that is risky for both veteran traders and novices. Any uninformed, reckless decision can produce different results - by chance. Be wise and do not let chance underlie your success or bankruptcy stories. Please do your research first before investing into anything and whatever you do, do not make the mistake of over-extending yourself with margin (brokerage-provided capital) that you cannot repay should things go south. People have and continue to make this fundamental mistake that will ruin them financially for years. Stock investments should be about long-term growth, stability, and supplemental to your income. Investments should give you access to the opportunity of financial freedom, but should not be your primary source for income. Do not listen to stock gurus and paid-only discord groups - they don’t make money from stocks, they make money from you. Lastly, this atypical market condition is the perfect storm for spontaneous “pump and dumps” where stocks become inflated, and based on fool’s theory or musical chairs (whichever you prefer), the last one that gets out gets burned. Be smart, be patient, do the research. Basic Stock Jargons & Short/Long Positions: Long - you’re buying and holding a stock with the intention for it to increase in value. Short - you’re borrowing shares from a lender (brokerage, investment firm, individual investors), selling it to someone, and hoping to buy it back at a lower price. Your profit is the difference in the sell and buy back price. I’ll provide a real world example because this concept it a bit more complex:
Person A is a share lender. They want to lend the share and get paid a small interest rate as compensation.
Person B asks Person A to lend him that share temporarily. Person B does not pay anything upfront, but he promises to pay Person A in the form of interest over time.
Person B finds a buyer Person C. Person C wants to buy a stock so it can go up. Person C is “long” on this stock. Person B, however, is short on this stock because he wants the value of the stock to go down.
Person C pays Person B $10 for the stock. Now, Person C has spent $10, and Person B has gained $10.
Two hypothetical situation happens now:
Scenario 1: Stock value increases to $15. Person C is now up $5 and he sells because he’s making nice gains. Person B needs to buy back that share at $15, but he only gained $10 profit initially. Now he needs to fork up $5 to buy back the share, and then return the share back to the lender + any interest accrued. In this scenario, the “short” lost money, the “long” gained money, and the “lender” made interest money.
Scenario 2: Stock value decreases to $5. Person C is now down $5 and he sells to cut losses. Person B needs to buy back that share at $5, but he already has $10 in profit initially. Now he pays $5 for the share, leaving him still with $5 profit, and returns the share back to the lender + any interested accrued. In this scenario, the “short” made money, the “long” lost money, and the “lender” made interest money.
The above scenarios help to show why “shorts” (typically hedge funds or experienced traders) might want to manipulate the stock price to go down. Hedge funds have an incredible amount of power in the market, which I will explain in a bit, and can often create serious price movements to invoke price action that benefits themselves. Shorts, therefore, have the opposite intention of longs. They want share prices to go down, and in the process, can bankrupt certain companies that rely on the stock market liquidity to stay afloat. In other words, when investors leave a stock because it is dropping in value, the company loses that money that they could have used to pay off debt, grow the business, develop new products, pay for expenses, etc.
Market Manipulation: Market manipulation is not new to the scene. Investors have long known of the existence of stock market manipulation tactics, and every day, we may observe some levels of manipulation in specific stocks, specific categories or industries of stocks, or the entire market. Market manipulation is defined as any actions performed with the intention of moving a certain stock price in favor of the manipulator. In this case, these are the wealthy “whales” or hedge funds, both of which have enormous capital capable of shifting stock prices at alarming speeds. Keep in mind, not all hedge funds do this and not all hedge funds are “shorts”. Some are “neutral” and act as lenders to make money, some are “growth-based” and invest just like everyday traders with the intention of raising share prices, and others are “short” which are probably perceived to be the sadistic groups of the bunch. Below, I will be discussing how manipulation occurs and on different scales. Manipulation Tactics on a Spectrum: Market manipulation can happen in certain stock, sectors, or the entire market. There are probably far more types of manipulative tactics than we know, but I will describe the most basic types and the strategies behind it. Scenario 1: Let’s say a hedge fund just opened a short position on stock X. Stock X is rising in value because general investors see it as a potential growth stock. Hedge funds are not too excited about this increased share value, so they can “hedge” or protect themselves, by selling put options. When they sell puts, they are anticipating that the stock will continue to surge, which causes the puts to become worthless at expiration, but on the contrary, they will be collecting the “premium” or money paid upfront by traders that bought the put. At the same time, this hedge fund will slowly “cover”, or buy shares of Stock X, so that the increased value of the shares will offset the short position which is losing money. The manipulation here is by using the sheer amount of capital in hand to bolster the stock, both creating favorable conditions for the puts that they sold and the share that they purchased as cover. If they want to add another level of manipulation to this, they can also purchase call options, which will result in profit if the stock price goes up. In this scenario, hedge funds make money at the expense of put option buyers and other shorts that do not have manipulative power or capital to recreate this same strategy. Scenario 2: Let’s say a hedge fund just opened a short position on Stock X. Stock X is rising in value because general investors see it as a potential growth stock. This hedge fund does not want to risk extra capital to cover their short position (by buying shares, selling put options, or buying call options), so they try a different route. Keep in mind that hedge funds are typically heavily invested in many stocks and assets, meaning they have a lot of power in deciding the direction of many stocks that have potential to instill widespread fear across the entire market if it drops. Take for example, if Apple and Google began to hurl downwards, this can create panic in the market where everyday traders might sell their shares at a loss. This in turn might ripple through the market as other investors in other stocks are predicting a downward trajectory across the market since these big name stocks are losing value so rapidly. Conveniently enough, hedge funds own a lot of these big name “FANG” stocks. If I am a moderately sadistic hedge fund, I can sell off a large holding of shares (in the scale of multi millions or billions) that are in the same sector as Stock X, which would incite fear across the sector, creating panic sell offs. The price will drop sharply across the board, including Stock X, and the short position will produce big profits. Because this hedge fund sold off a large chunk of their shares at a good price, they can now cover their short position (essentially getting rid of it), and then buy up these same stocks that were let go earlier, only this time at a much cheaper price. The hedge fund has now made money not only on the short position, but now they got into the stock at a cheap price in which they can explore other manipulative tactics to bolster the price again. This can be done by encouraging analyst upgrades, publicizing “newly” purchased positions without disclosing the fact that they previously owned it, etc. Scenario 3: This one involves technology: algorithm trading (commonly referred to as algo trading). This one is a really intricately designed manipulative tactic that investors really have no way of getting around. Algorithm trading is the process of using high-speed super-computers and a team of traders to constantly monitor market activity and trade when opportunities arise. In this case, the hedge funds do not have to do any direct manipulation of the market, which makes this 100% legal. How this works is by taking advantage of how trading works and the time it takes for a trade to be made. For you general investors, we have mobile apps and web-based trading platforms to trade. When we like a stock, we have to go through the motion of inputting the stock ticker symbol, the amount of shares, the price we are willing to pay, hit submit, and confirm the trade. For hedge funds using algorithm trading, all this is done autonomously, which makes submission of an order several magnitudes quicker. When an order is submitted, it goes through a brokerage (Fidelity, Webull, ETrade, TDA, RH, etc.) and the data is rerouted to a clearing house (intermediate party that verifies and processes the trade). Clearing houses are responsible for making sure your orders are filled, but they take it on a first come first serve basis. So if a stock is moving quickly, hedge funds have a serious edge in getting in cheaper and faster as well as getting out higher and faster. Algorithm trading is integratable as part of the buying and selling strategies mentioned in the two previous scenarios, which is why they can almost guarantee profit. Algorithm trading also uses a lot of data in their backbone to determine the trades that have a high chance of profitability, and it acts on various factors such as volatility, volume, interest activity, news, etc. In some cases, these algorithms can be set to do some extremely sadistic things. I’ll start by talking about “market orders” vs “limit orders”. Before you make a trade on your brokerage, you will notice an option that says “market order” or “limit order”. Market orders are an agreement that you will purchase the stock or option contract at the best price in the market in the momentary space in time. There is of course a huge risk to that because in that short moment in time, there may not be anyone selling at a good price, and instead, some people might set sell limits at ridiculous prices. For example, some people set a sell limit at $1000 for GME. If you did a market order, and you get really unlucky, you might end up snagging a share for $1000 each, when the actual share value might be $300. However, when you set a “limit order”, you are agreeing to buy a share at a maximum price that you designated. In the event that a hedge fund siphons a ton of shares of a company, the algorithm can be set to sell these shares at a ridiculous sell limit. Remember, when they buy or sell, it’s processed significantly faster at the clearing houses, so if you’re that one unlucky trader that went for a market order on a stock, you might end up purchasing it at a huge premium set by the hedge funds themselves. Moral of the story: DO NOT PURCHASE AS MARKET ORDER - ALWAYS PURCHASE AT LIMIT ORDER. I’m am not a financial advisor, so take everything I said as gibberish.
r/WallStreetBets Dramawave: Megathread for Friday, Jan 29th. Post all WSB-related drama here!
The market is open and there is a new thread to collect today's events. You can read the Background section to get info on past events, and skip to the Today's Events section if you're already caught up. This thread will be updating live. Want to contribute? PM this account with links to drama. If we use your links we will credit you WSB USERS! PLEASE DON'T SPAM! This is a subreddit for the general reddit audience to discuss drama, so please don't clog up the thread. If you want to participate, make sure to follow our rules to avoid having your comments removed. Background WallStreetBets is a subreddit that treats "retail investing" (ie, amateur investing and amateur stock trades) like a casino. It's been featured here a few times in the past. (Examples: 1, 2, 3) WSB users will sometimes pick a stock for silly or shitposty reasons to place their bets on. Gamestop stock (ticker name: GME) has been one of them. (We would appreciate some links to older examples WSB hyping GME stock if anyone has them). EDIT: Christopher-Nolan has provided us this example from a month ago Our layman's explanation of a short squeeze is if someone "shorts" a stock, they have essentially made a bet its value will drop. But if their bet goes wrong, they will be forced to buy the stock they shorted at painfully high prices. Newspaper's explanation here. Another simple way of summarizing it is that some hedge funds got into a pissing contest with an internet forum, except millions of dollars are on the line, and the hedge funds shorting GME were in a very vulnerable position, and their competitors in this match pride themselves on alleged mental deficiency. As the short squeeze doomsday scenario for these hedge funds has seemed more likely, the drama and excitement have overwhelmed social media, and a few WSB users are in a position to become millionaires. Another reason this is making the national news is that it's unprecedented. Although short squeezes have happened, it's never been seemingly spurred by retail investors on social media. Now that the drama has hit the main stream it's starting lots of arguments around the internet about the stock market in general and what it really means to "manipulate" it, and what the role of the SEC and other regulators should be. WSB was featured on SRD this week first for drama about a mod-sponsored twitter account, and then for making international news for the upcoming GME short squeeze. Wednesday WallStreetBets went private briefly on Jan 27, and is now back open. The closure seems to have been triggered by Discord's ban of the WSB server. Meanwhile on twitter, the mod-sponsored accountwent back online trying to call out WSB mod impersonators Thursday On the morning of Thurs, Jan 28, the retail trading platform Robinhood no longer allowed its users to purchase GME and other stocks popular on WSB, causing a huge uproar against Robinhood on wallstreetbets (examples 1, 2, 3) and twitter (examples 1, 2, 3, 4) WSB began posting about Robinhood selling users' shares without their consent. According to the commenters, if you buy stock with borrowed money ("on margin"), your brokerage can force you to sell when the share price drops. WSB users congratulate DeepFuckingValue, who owns about 50,000 shares, for still holding. Posts relating to the short squeeze crowded the front page of reddit all day. Reuters is estimating the short sellers have taken over 70 billion in losses so far. AOC hosted a twitch stream in which former reddit CEO Alexis Ohanian appeared as a guest Friday Today is a much hyped-day as some of the hedge funds that shorted GME will now have to pay out. WSB is predicting that the "short squeeze" event will start today. At the time of posting, the European markets have been open for several hours and the US market has just opened. More updates coming. 9 AM A thread accusing news network CNBC of doxxing DeepFuckingValue was massively upvoted. Some users in the comments debate what counts as "doxxing", seeing as DFV gave an interview to the Wall Street Journal. The user who made the post seems to have deleted both the post and their own account.
Imagine you’re a hedge fund CEO or senior executive. You’ve always had an inflated ego, and going to Wharton for an MBA definitely didn’t help in that regard. You interned at GS for the summer of 2003 and told all your friends about it, probably even brought it up oh so casually on dates. When you were hired as a trader by a moderately good to great fund, you probably lost a good deal of friends from your previous life, because they “just don’t get you now.” You’re in a different league than them, even your classmates that now work at lesser funds. You act friendly, liking Facebook posts, returning their calls, but there’s a nagging feeling that they’re holding you back. That you’ve made it, and you don’t need some loser that doesn’t even work on the East Coast. Jump ahead a few years It’s September 20th, 2008. Bear Stearns closed months earlier, Lehman went bankrupt a few days ago. "Buddies" of yours from both funds have been texting you, some you know from college. Maybe you’ll take pity on them and put in a good word, maybe you’ll tell them nothing’s available right now and that you’re sorry. You don’t tell them you were part of your fund's effort to short sell theirs into oblivion. Maybe you really are sorry though. What you’re more sorry about, however, is that your bonuses are probably going to be shit for a few years. They could even dip into five figures, god forbid. Your thoughts are of course directed to the millions of people losing their jobs across the country by the news, but inevitably your bonus reduction resurfaces as your biggest concern. “It’s not like I can do anything,” you say, after downing some wine. You go to sleep fairly easily, while across the country, innumerable people are forced to contemplate moving. Let’s jump ahead a few more years It’s mid-March, 2020. At this point, its become evident that COVID-19 is going to ravage the world, in some capacity (not gonna put politics into this because that’s not the point). As either a CEO or senior executive at a mid-range hedge fund, your thoughts gravitate towards your craft. It’s clear the market is going to tank, so you do what you do best. You short the shit out of several clearly sinking industries (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/investing/short-sellers-market-coronavirus/index.html). But you don't stop there. You go on CNBC, Fox Business, maybe even the BBC, and announce doom and gloom. Doing this will get people to dump their stocks, meaning your shorts print even more money. Oh well, if there’s a positive to be gained from this whole thing it’s your fund making good money, right? By late March or early April, your wife convinces you that going with the kids to the Hampton’s would be the best choice, since the upper east side is getting a little claustrophobic. You’ll need to cancel your two week St. Barts vacation, what a bummer. You rent out a nice beach house in Sag Harbor for 125k a month, managing to beat out the other bidder by upping them by 10k. Once again, millions of people are losing their jobs, and you’re shorting the companies they work for. What else should you do? Only a few months forward this time It’s October. Weeks turned into months, and while you’ve started getting back to the city more and more, you’re still staying in Sag. Sometimes you have family friends over for an ostensibly socially distanced wine + cigar. You don’t think much of the events of the summer, aside from that one tweet you had PR send out in July. Your kids might have thoughts, you haven’t asked. Just a few more months, I promise It’s January. For really no other reason than the prospect of making more money, you along with a few other funds have decided to open naked shorts on GameStop. While technically not allowed, there are loopholes. Why would the loopholes be there, if not to be exploited, right? Not like you don’t do the same thing with your taxes. Then, the unthinkable happens A bunch of retail investors, led by a specific part of Reddit, decide to fuck your position by dramatically raising the share price. Since you firmly believe these people incapable of sticking to such an audacious play, you do nothing. Before long though, you start to become slightly unnerved by how steady the growth of the stock is. It's approaching $100, and you're losing hundreds of thousands to millions every day on short interest. So, you decide to take action. You get on CNBC, and cry about fundamentals. About volatility crushing these people. They don't listen, and keep buying. A week passes with you and your rich friends trying various strategies, none of it working. You're aware of another fund leaning on a popular trading app to force them into not accepting buy orders for GME, amongst others. You're not above sacrificing pride for money, so you announce your fund has closed its shorts. You're lying, of course. What kind of looks what you get at future parties if you cowed to these people? No, fuck that. You've read all the right books, been to the right schools, made the right friends, networked at the right parties and functions. You will not close, everything in your life has conditioned you not to. In fact, you'll double down. You go on CNBC some more. Artificially lower the stock price by trading between a few other funds. None of it's working, and you're intensely aware of another potential gamma squeeze on Friday. Restrictions on buying help during the day, but after hours, the stock jumps. That momentum carries it into a solid Friday. You won't budge, but at this point you're losing millions of dollars a day. So, here we are These people do not care about you. You're the least of their concerns, actually. They care about money and fund image, in that order. We have a real chance to make guys exactly like this hurt where it counts (for them), and I want people to understand that. I'm not saying throw your rent into GME. I'm saying you have the chance to really be a part of something, to screw the people that have been doing the screwing for your whole life. The house has been running a fixed casino, and you have the chance to hit back. Do not close. We have them, and they know it. We're winning, and if we keep winning they will give in.
"I think I've lived long enough to see competitive Counter-Strike as we know it, kill itself." Summary of Richard Lewis' stream (Long)
I want to preface that the contents of this post is for informational purposes. I do not condone or approve of any harassments or witch-hunting or the attacking of anybody.
Richard Lewis recently did a stream talking about the terrible state of CS esports and I thought it was an important stream anyone who cares about the CS community should listen to. Vod Link here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/830415547 I realize it is 3 hours long so I took it upon myself to create a list of interesting points from the stream so you don't have to listen to the whole thing, although I still encourage you to do so if you can. I know this post is still long but probably easier to digest, especially in parts. Here is a link to my raw notes if you for some reason want to read through this which includes some omitted stuff. It's in chronological order of things said in the stream and has some time stamps. https://pastebin.com/6QWTLr8T
Intro
"The last month has convinced me, that we are going to be heading into a dark place for Counter-Strike esports in 2021."
"I think I've seen the scene essentially kill itself."
"For the past 5 to 6 years, we've basically been in a holding pattern of people coming into our game wanting to run it, wanting to run all of the esports and wanting to profiteer and its been sort of a concerted effort to drive them off and push them away."
"We're spread way too thin."
"If Riot don't get involved and stop the scumbags that have moved over to Valorant from getting their feet under the table, Valorant is going to have real problems."
RL thinks too much has happened all at once for us to do anything except watch it play out, like:
Recent CSPPA strike against BLAST
ESIC failures and them not being supported enough
Teams cheating i.e. coaches/bugs
Widespread match fixing
The Pandemic
"People who try to hold bubble events are so incompetent and fuck up and people get the 'rona and its their fault."
"People who say Flashpoint is a bubble is full of shit and is a lie and people are now suffering for that lie."
"To save money they let people go home and break the bubble for a week."
"Not just Flashpoint peoples decision, they have a partner that handles the production." (hinting FACEIT)
"People are trapped in hotels essentially under house arrest because of COVID restrictions and has fucked peoples lives up."
"It's all too much, all of this incompetence, all of this greed, maybe we ride it out."
RL says he has talked to the Riot devs (the ones working on Valorant) and says, "They are so cognizant of all the fuck ups and all the problems we have in Counter-Strike."
He continues to say that this is factored into their business plan and that we never had a competitor, but just so happens to have one coincide, when we are at our worst.
CSPPA - Counter-Strike Professional Players' Association
"Who does this union really fucking serve?"
RL believes that the CSPPA is a mockery.
He points out the hypocrisy that they wouldn't strike for the pros who were kicked out of ESL Pro League, or for Jamppi or dream3r.
He also says ESL paid CSPPA and are racketeering and many other TOs have to pay them to get their "seal of approval"
He says they would strong-arm TOs saying "well if you don't give us the money, these guys are so we'll just have to commit to playing their event."
Also points out that they will strike against a competitor they are not in agreement with (Flashpoint)
RL: "It's what it says about every other time you haven't done it and it's about every time you don't do it now moving forward." "The issues they've chosen to ignore this year alone are embarrassing."
Then he points out that there was no strike for Valve qualifiers even if we have no major but Jamppi and dream3r can't play in them.
"and Valve have said 'Oh yeah we know actually their stories are accurate, Jamppi didn't cheat, now in a legally binding document. Yep dream3r did have his account hacked in a LAN café', but they still can't play. Where is the fucking solidarity? Gone. Doesn't exist. It's not important [because] it doesn't affect you." "That's what the union does right now, it looks after all the tier 1 people."
He says the CSPPA doesn't represent all players all the time and has driven a divide where you have the haves and have-nots
"We have a tier of players that operate with impunity and do not help their tier 2 or tier 3 players out at all." "If you are not a tier 1 player you do not matter, they don't event ask your opinion."
He tells chrisJ to admit and own the fact that the reason he didn't speak up during the ESL Pro League debacle is because it didn't affect him
"They are looking after some players at the expense of other players. How the fuck is that a union?"
He says the BLAST situation is a reasonable dispute and supports the players but is not the right time for a strike and have not even identified the correct enemy
He thinks players are lashing out now due to previous incidents and are upset that BLAST are working with ESIC
He stated that CSPPA shouldn't beefing with ESIC and they should be working in harmony
He says what they need to do is talk with the teams/organizations that have sold that right to BLAST
RL: "Your employers, the people who pay you that massive exorbitant salaries, when you don't stream and you don't do interviews and you offer no value beyond your ability to click heads and you get 25k dollars a month." "Why don't you talk to them about it? Oh right. You're happy to take away BLAST's paper, but you don't want to risk your own."
"I am seeing such unbelievable cowardice from the players here with the battles you choose."
"Where was the strike action when in the qualifiers for the world championship, there were teams and players engaged in huge conflicts of interest?" "Where was the strike action when your image rights were taken and sold to every league you've ever been in every union type organization you've ever been associated with like, WESA, to your org every time you sign a contract, to the leagues you play in."
"Your image rights are essentially worthless now, there's about 10 fucking separate parties that have them, and how many of them are giving you anything for it? Not much pretty much your org by the way."
"That's a big issue. Your image is you, your image is your brand. What are you doing about that? Nothing."
He is also angry at SirScoots who is "popping off" at people on Twitter who all want the same thing, which is 'A unified Counter-Strike scene for everybody, that works for everybody, that has a sustained ecosystem that nourishes everybody.' "We don't have that now."
He also says their rankings are a joke
"Just so happened, oh look TACO, that very important prominent member of the board, we pushed his team artificially up when they weren't even in the fucking top 20, not by a long shot."
He also says the ineptitude of the CSPPA cost Flashpoint a monitor sponsor
"Is it really a player association or is it like a fucking agency at this point"
ESIC - Esports Integrity Commission
"They have been put in an impossible position."
RL says that Ian Smith, the founder of ESIC and who was done work in mainstream sports, is a good and honorable man who has dedicated his life to integrity and sports. He takes on both sides, ensuring match fixers are punished, but also doing appeals and ensuring those punishments were fair.
"ESIC is a tiny organization" and are in need of money, "They didn't run a grift like the CSPPA did."
"Saying 'you want our support and you want the players to turn up you better pay us.' They don't do that."
"Had startup seed money from MTG and since then they've been pecking shit with the hens."
Ian Smith made sure that the money given by MTG (Modern Times Group, parent company of ESL, ESEA, DreamHack) was nothing more than startup money and wouldn't be in debt to them
Ian Smith sat down with other TO's not part of MTG and wanted to partner with them. They declined and called ESIC "ESL spies and we will never align ourselves with you"
"They only were just able to afford, hiring a PR guy on a full time salary to deal with the press and send out those releases you've seen, this year."
"They have a tiny group of staff investigating these things and they have taken on the biggest problems in our scene: the cheating, the match fixing."
ESIC have had "unprecedented levels of cheating to deal with, because there's something wrong with our scene ever since we went online. There's something wrong with it, everyone's lost their fucking pride and self-respect and they got no passion for it anymore, so they think fuck it, what's in it for me?"
He calls out coaches who are talking about players rights when they would rob and steal from them.
Also says more coaches being banned are coming
He also points out flaws in community's reaction to the punishments to coaches bans: "Half of the cunts still have jobs and some of the cunts got new jobs. We didn't even shun the cheating coaches."
ESIC have "found I think another 2 or 3 exploits like that one and they are investigating them all right now, it's going on right now."
"I know that there are going to be more names getting banned, again."
"So they're doing that on a skeleton crew while, investigating 3 continents worth of match fixing in MDL and semi-pro level CS." "They're doing this with half a dozen people." "They don't have any money or any help. People barely even fucking cooperate with them, they are treated like pariahs. It's ridiculous."
"Why are the CSPPA popping off at ESIC on my Twitter timeline, when you should be working together." "because its all about what's in it in for me." "2020, the online era of CS: 'What is in it for me?' How can I cheat, how can I get my paper, how can I bleed this scene one last time before I fuck off and play shooty shooty bang bang Riot Games babys first fps."
RL says that in the CIS region, teams have gone to tournaments and have been eliminated multiple times by the same team. We found out they were cheating and those players who lost, have been cut from their roster, careers ended because of cheaters.
Stream Sniping
"They're all at it in the online era, they're all at it, they're all cheating, they're all using exploits, probably that see through smoke bug got used a bunch of times"
RL talks about how there is no integrity from dead (the player), always denying when caught doing something
On the topic of 'BLAST never said we couldn't stream snipe': "Lies, BLAST never said you could do that, they had to sort of retcon it." "because what happened after that they fucking started snitching and squealing"
"Suddenly you had like, 10 of the top 15 teams in the world, staring into the abyss of being banned for 6-12 months in line with ESIC recommendations."
He says that ESIC was put in a tough situation and couldn't enforce the bans because it would have resulted in killing CS. What resulted was, BLAST, ESIC, and teams came together and gave them a warning and told them, in RL's words "don't do this again or you're gonna get got."
He then says the top teams brushed this off and didn't give a fuck
The new MiBR team playing Flashpoint, that wasn't involved in the previous incidents are doing it again (stream sniping). He gave credit to Flashpoint for the quick resolution and punishment and respect for cogu's response to the situation.
"ESIC came out and said, once more, 'Guys, zero tolerance from now on.'" RL then got upset at community's reaction calling ESIC "pussies" for their non enforcement and said if we want competitive CS we cant ban the top 10 teams.
He points out how players have no integrity and will do anything for an edge as long as they won't get detected or banned or it's within a grey area.
"All of this shit was mad avoidable, even in the pandemic era."
He talks about why aren't we filming them. Why aren't there representatives for leagues and tournaments making sure players aren't cheating?
Match Fixing
"How many years have we let our scene be fucking pillaged by these greedy cunts?" "We just let it happen."
RL says that gambling and skins betting which existed in moderation was "accelerated and blown up by the Call of Duty greedy fucks."
"Never forget TmarTn was on the board of EnVyUs." "His website, CSGOLotto, they had a bunch of off-the-books sponsorships." "NBK promoted them. People forget."
"Those people who had access to the skins, go to the players" "Even people like s1mple, best player in the world, even he scammed knives and skins off fucking fans."
Owners of skin casino sites would approach pros and lend them skins to use in tournaments and possibly keep them after reaching a deal
Players would tip off inside info about matches and teams in exchange for skins. Info such as: roster changes, how they played in scrims
They would use this info to bet and subvert the odds on their sites. "That happened religiously, I can't even tell you how many times it happened."
"I had access to the biggest database of information, from an inside betting circle in NA, and it would take information and screenshots from other pro players, who were feeding them info in exchange for money or skins."
"Some of these players are still playing." "Incredibly, there are players still in the CSPPA today, complaining about the BLAST recordings, that were embroiled in this murky shit back then."
RL also says that there were tournaments where teams contrived with each other, who should throw, who should win.
"There's a handful of people that are trying to fucking clean it up, and you think you get something over the line and you see something like the CSPPA and it's run by corrupt fucking chuckle heads, and now you've got another corrupt body you have to fight on a fucking daily basis, it's demoralizing."
"It's too far gone. Our entire semi-professional scene is compromised."
"It's rife guys, I'm not going to lie any more. It's not just China, it's not just Russia, it's here, it's NA, it's Europe, it's Australia, so much more than you think, so much more than we can prove."
"I get sent chat logs all the time […] and they're morons, these players, short-sighted, amateur, morons and they're doing it on WhatsApp." People would get cut from the bets because they want to make more money, then they leak the logs. He says, from the chat logs, they spread "little" bets across every site they can (400 to 1k dollars) to prevent shifting odds
He says the scumbags who've fucked off to Valorant will do the same there if Riot doesn't do something and says Valorant "is an esports scene heading for a very early fall based on the sheer volume of scumbags that are already there."
"That's tier 2 CS in a nutshell these days. They know they're never going to play in a major, so what's the punishment?"
"All of these tier 2 fucks that are fixing games now they are like the fucking mafia compared to iBuyPower" "These guys are working with organized criminals to fix entire seasons worth of games. That's what's going on in your tier 2 CS."
"I'm literally being told that there are players fixing games at all levels of Chinese esports and motherfuckers with guns are turning up to team houses and stuff."
North America
"Everyone in NA has left we've lost a continents worth of support during this pandemic and Valve haven't said a fucking word."
RL says the Call of Duty "goblins" that destroyed CS for years are the same people who are now trying to leave CS. "The nerve to treat a game where the fans, and the community, and the TO's were nothing but good to you." "To just kick the players out now and go and leave and say 'It just doesn't make financial sense.' Oh you'll slither back when we have a major though for them stickers won't you."
There's a cascading effect in NA where people don't bother with CS anymore and people like Chaos suffer.
He says NA team owners are incompetent for always wanting it easy and always wanting a guarantee on their investment without skill or nuance.
RL says he would be able to market a team correctly and would have a good ROI and also points out how TSM wouldn't even be bothered to tweet that their team, which was one of the best in the world, was playing at the Major.
He also says not all NA owners are like that, compliments and respects Jason Lake who nearly lost everything to keep Complexity going.
He then calls out the incompetence in Infinite Esports when they acquired OpTic Gaming and bought an Indian CS team.
He says HECZ is not to blame here and that they couldn't tell forsaken was cheating when it was so obvious.
They measured his reaction time to the likes of dev1ce and s1mple
When an enemy showed up on his screen he won that duel something like 44% of the time
"was like the number 1 player in the world statistically"
He brought a laptop to their bootcamp and refused to use the high end PCs that hey provided
He respects Andy Miller (NRG CEO) and HECZ but says that the attitude of not being able to easily monetize their teams is "piss weak" and there needs to be a risk.
He says Chaos EC shouldn't be cutting their roster and should be competent enough to be able to figure out how to make money off their team.
He says there are still opportunities in NA and people are panicking and pulling out, and says Valorant will be the same if not worse.
He also says "bums" who couldn't even get out of groups in NA competitions, are making crazy money in Valorant and says it will continue to inflate.
He also said that he heard rumors that EG (Evil Geniuses) are done.
He also thinks that the rumors of a Valve franchised league from before was sparked up from "these lazy fabled weak NA fucking team owners basically trying to see if Valve would bite at the hook if it was dangled and they didn't"
Slasher says NA team owners are really in favor of franchised leagues because they want to make more money. "Most of the powerful team owners right now are on board with ditching this third party organization structure, or they are trying to play this power politics with all the TOs, and that is contributing to a lot of the problems there"
RL says that Riot has proved they can run a franchised league (LCS) and will be profitable in 2021 which is what a lot of team owners care about and says the competition will only serve to snatch people away from CS.
RL continues to say, "I am so sick and tired of what we have done to this scene, I am just exhausted with it." "I think we have legitimately fucked it, I really think we have. I think we're staring into almost like a CGS (Championship Gaming Series) wasteland in NA." "Counter-Strike esports is a fucking joke."
Talent
"TO's have treated CS talent like absolute human garbage for years now."
RL says that people like Sean Gares and ddk switching over to Valorant isn't for financial reasons because they are making less over there.
He points out that TO's can't even give talent a 3 month in advance calendar.
Because of the pandemic TO's won't hire certain people and some people are working more hours for the same money.
He says we as a community don't respect journalists enough which is why we don't have good journalists.
He also says DeKay is leaving the scene soon and that Thorin is close to leaving also
He says he had to talk a caster down from quitting and was struggling to find reasons.
He says that DreamHack told Vince they would hire him but not if he wants to stick with dusT and says that this is the norm in esports. "Constant leveraging of people against each other." and says this is why we don't have a talent union.
New gen casters are getting put into shit situations and the community's reaction to them is adding fuel to the fire
He says the reason Moses left was because of the terrible conditions
He says that Anders had to constantly leave his family and kid because someone fucked up or broke promises and had to constantly tell his kid to their face that "daddy can't be home this weekend."
He says that esports has always been a lie to sell you this dream, "Meanwhile there's about 2% of the cunts getting all the checks."
Valve
"Anything that Riot does, is better than Valve's inaction"
Slasher says that the larger aspect of esports as a whole compared to other entertainment mediums and Valve's lack of inattention are the bigger problems. He continues saying that the fact that Valve let their game be ran as an esport, they need to take on the responsibilities of it.
Both Slasher and RL wants Valve to take control but not on the level of Riot Games, there needs to be a balance.
In case it was ever a question: Gabe Newell has been to 0 CSGO Majors.
RL calls Valve out saying they could have done something during the gambling era.
He says Valve used to come to the majors, but doesn't think they do anymore.
RL had met with Valve at the Cluj-Napoca Major and had tried to appeal iBP's indefinite punishment and had also gave Brax's life story:
A recent family member passed away, they had lost a lot of income, they had to live in trailer, iBuyPower did not pay any salaries, and was pressured by family to make money who didn't support his career.
RL said that Valve told him, "How dare you try and make us feel guilty." "We shouldn't feel bad about enforcing the only thing that matters that we need to make players afraid of: cheating and match fixing"
RL also tried to share other info about match fixing and nothing came of it
RL points out that Source 2 or a new engine is not something you will want based on the experience of transitioning from CS 1.6 to CS:S. "Valve's track record with brand new engines being launched, not fucking great from what I remember."
Slasher says "If there is anything the community should do, is pressure Valve to hire a community manager."
They say that we need a commissioner, a community manager (not the person who runs the Twitter who posts memes all day), then we need to have a circuit
RL reiterates that Valve doesn't care about CS esports and says they need to change the culture at Valve to make them care about CS esports
Slasher says a systemic problem is making it so working on CSGO would be a bad decision for you as an employee for Valve
He also hasn't talked to Valve in ages and have sent over bugs and cheats and doesn't get emails back anymore
Slasher says we should be directing attention at the developer leads, pointing out Ido Magal, if he even is still the project lead
RL thinks that Ido and Brian are the only people that "vaguely even give a fuck about CS" and were the only people that RL recalled that actually read Reddit and paid attention from time to time
"It is really fucking precarious. Somebody has got to step the fuck up and start giving a shit"
Slasher suggests org owners, with CSPPA, with ESIC, with TOs have a concerted effort against Valve
"Riot Games are doing better things than Valve in the esports space" which is something RL didn't think he'd say.
"People who used to be talent, working with unions, arguing with other talent, when the unions fucked them over, can't understand their perspective, TOs fucking over broadcast talent, broadcast talent wanting to leave and go and work for orgs, orgs having no money, Valve might take coaches away because all the coaches are cheating, ESIC has about 4 people in a fucking call doing the investigations, everyone thinks they're spies for ESL, ESL are just the evil fucking overlords wanting to rule the scene and will just somehow, like cockroaches outliving a nuclear bomb, and Valve are in a fucking holiday in Hawaii thinking about the next Dota character because they don't give a fuck about us."
Closing Statements
"We've peaked. If we want to sustain and exist, now is the time to figure it out. No esports lasts as long as this, we've already done 8 years. We've already broke the records. We have got to figure out a way to coexist and drive the negative forces out and we need to do it as a collective and we're not doing that."
RL compared the Counter-Strike scene to the people on the Titanic who ran around with guns robbing people while the boat was sinking.
"We have given up on being a respectable esports scene." "We are now a conduit to make money for those who want to just milk it, just have one last ride, one last roll of the dice. It's done." "What a fucking mess. What have we done to our fucking scene?"
"There's just too much self-interest driving all of this." "I don't see a way we stop the dominoes." "When it's that bad, when there's that many dishonest people that ESIC have to come out and say that if we punish them all there's no one left. What does that tell you?"
"How many opportunities have we had to clean house? How many times have we said, 'this must never happen again', and another scandal." "The entire skins betting operations was the biggest criminal conspiracy in esports ever executed and no one has been punished for it." "The people who could be driving that don't want to."
"Right now people are fans of those organizations because the scene has value. It is worth being a fan of Astralis because they are excellent at Counter-Strike. It is worth being a fan of s1mple because he is the best player in Counter-Strike, maybe the exception of ZywOo. If the scene is devalued, if the scene loses its meaning, those things lose its meaning too, and people will leave, people will stop tuning into the games. I have seen it happen in multiple esports, this is not my first time at the rodeo. I am getting big Brood War vibes right now and I don't like it."
"The role you play in all of this as fans, as viewers, as listeners, as consumers of esports content, it's absolutely imperative that you know who the good guys are. It's absolutely imperative that you use your voice. It's absolutely imperative that when things are bad, you know who, at least, is trying to make them good, and you have to apply your criticism to the right targets."
He continues saying it's no good in continuing to attack ESIC and saying how they are bad, ESIC have it hard
He says CSPPA are on the right side of the argument on BLAST but have been on the wrong side of many arguments many times.
"If you are not willing to stand along side the weakest member of the union, with the least amount of influence, and the least amount of power, then it is not a union at all and you shouldn't pose as one." "You wanna serve a bunch of special interest do it, everyone else in esports fucking does, but do not pose as something you are not." "We love the players. I've been fighting for players rights for as long as I've been able to, but the CSPPA is not what we needed."
"They are not applying the pressure to the right people, they are not fighting the right battles, they are not helping their weaker members."
He says what orgs have done by keeping or hiring coaches is bad. "When you give up on holding an appreciable standard, you've lost the scene" "Competition matters, rules matter, punishments matter, achievements matter, excellence matters" "If you start stripping that away, you have nothing" "You guys need to take that knowledge and apply it sensibly."
"Valve has sold you all down the river, they sold everyone in the esports scene down the river, tournament organizers are selling their talent down the river. Don't hate on them for sounding tired after a 16 hour day. Don't hate on them because the hype for a matchup they've seen for the 20th time in the past 3 months, they can't be as excited or it sounds contrived. Support your guys, they're there for you, these are your people."
"This community has got to start acting like one for the first fucking time. Just put the petty shit away, let's try and fix this fucking scene while we still have one to save."
"You can't rely on Valve, you can't rely on ESL, you can't rely on the CSPPA, you can't rely on anyone." "Once again, it's gonna be the likes of us, the amateurs, the people who give a fuck, rolling up our sleeves and grafting." "I'm old and tired and I don't want to have to do it again. People need to pick up the torch and do it."
"Like Michal did, like Dudenhoeffer did. You see something wrong, fix it. You see somebody doing something wrong, call it out. If you think something could be better, let people know."
"Vote with your wallets if you're not happy with the direction Valve goes in. If when we do get to the Major, they serve up another subpar, same old bullshit stickers and signatures package again, do not buy it."
"You're a powerful block and if you use it correctly we can fucking avert this disaster."
"I'm not doing another year in this broken, bust-up fucking scene, where everyone is miserable, everyone is broke, everyone is tired, and everyone is trying to fucking rob everyone else, blind, while the fucking people who are meant to be protecting you, are just fucking enhancing it and lining their own pockets."
"I'm not doing it anymore and you shouldn't want to do it either."
"I stand by every fucking thing I said. I mean it, because this game fucking matters to me, this scene fucking matters to me. I put my life into this, my adult life, and to see it in this state is fucking sad."
With the recent influx of new users - I decided to post a guide to Pump and Dump schemes - what they are, how to avoid them and how to move on from them
TLDR: Following the recent DOGE and XRP situations, and our influx of new users - I have decided to put together a quick guide on what a pump and dump is, how to spot it, how to avoid it, and what to do should you fall for one. This is just my thoughts on the issue and by no means exhaustive. I welcome comments and my biggest recommendation if you fell for one of these schemes is to accept it, address your emotions, seek support - either by those around you or here if you feel more comfortable, then commit to educating yourself.
Summary:
A pump and dump scheme is where a group of people pitch a coin (or stock) to other people to spike short term volume, and therefore the price, in order to profit from selling their own supply at the higher price to the newer investors.
How to spot a PnD:
Promises of huge gains
Forced short time frames to make a decision
No discussion of risk - or questioning permitted
The opportunity finds you, you don't find the opportunity
Comparison to recent success stories - e.g. GME (dubious whether this will even be a success long term for individuals)
Tips to avoid - see below but the main two for me are:
Recognise emotional decision making, in yourself, and when it comes from others (people you may normally trust). You need to recognise this behaviour, and cut it out at source. To step back and breathe.
Ask yourself, what are they selling me on, and why? If they find you, you are being sold. That is all there is to it.
What is a Pump and Dump scheme?
A Pump and Dump scheme (PnD from here on in), is where an investor, or group of investors promote a coin they already hold (or are purchasing) in order to cause positive sentiment and the price to rise. At this point these investors will then sell their coins to the newer investors, causing the price to crash and leave the people who fell for the PnD with a large potential loss, or coins which are now worth a lot less than the price they paid for them. These are not new and were traditionally done via phone call. If you have watched the Wolf of Wall Street, or similar films about penny stocks, you have seen this stuff in action. If you are buying, you are the retail investor who gets taken for a ride. With the recent influx of new users to this site, and following the PnD schemes surrounding Doge and XRP, lets take a look at how to spot a PnD scheme
How to spot a PnD scheme?
Promises of huge gains, in a short amount of time. If it sounds too good to be true, it is. In crypto (and stocks) if someone is talking to you about something, they are selling you their position. If it is positive - they likely own it, if it negative - they either want prices to fall or they hold a competitor. Ask yourself, why someone would be going out their way to tell you something is a once in a lifetime opportunity? If it was, they would be keeping it secret and accumulating themselves. These people are salesman, and you are the one buying the bullshit
Linked to the above there is often a time element - 'get in quick, or you will miss it', they are relying on your impulsive decision making to jump in - they are manipulating you to over ride the logical part of your brain which makes decisions based on information and context
There is no discussion of any potential risks or downsides, and you are removed from groups or harassed for asking basic questions - this is a hive mind at work, and you are being censored from raising any concern or legitimate question.
There may be reference to 'how this time is different', or it plays on recent successes which are in no way comparable - e.g Game Stop - anyone who paused for a second would realise why not only was financially the short squeeze on GME completely different, but also the moral stand point was too. XRP, for example, is a centralised system which enriches the founders beyond belief. Yet these groups tried to ride the sentiment of GME to convince others to join - as a show of rebellion and alliance.
Social media storms are cooked up, it seems like out of nowhere this is all anyone can talk about - when has this ever proven a successful decision? Once everyone is talking about it, you are already too late. You may not lose money, if you are lucky, but you are still the one being duped. Again this is feeding on emotion and Fear of Missing Out. There will be groups created and ran by mods who run them like cults - no talk of anything but price going up is accepted.
There is a time or plan attached - e.g. Pump and Hold at 8:30. For the love of god, if this is the case, sell before then. All the leaders of these groups will have done. All of these public announcements are done again to create legitimacy and make you feel at ease - as a collective.
Generally any concept of 'we are in this together', coming from a group trying to actively push up the price of something short term = PnD. You are not in this together, markets are competitive - they are survival of the fittest whether you like it or not. They want your money, when you listen to them - you are basically offering to hand it over. People invest to make money, especially when the entire premise is pushing a price up to get rich. They do not want what is good for you, they are using you and they will take your money if you allow them to. They are telling you, because you are the opportunity - not the coin.
Be aware, people telling you to hold and buy more, are using you. They want you to push the price back up so they can sell. If you are in these groups - on social media, be aware you may be talking to bots, or at the least people who are trying to dump on you. When it drops, get out.
How to avoid PnDs in future
'Why are they telling me this?' - this is the first and main question to ask yourself. What does the person sharing the information have to gain from telling me? In this case - you invest and push the price up, allowing them to make greater profit. Understand why they would be sharing details with you - if it such a great thing, why are they sharing it?
if it is a friend telling you, ask for more information - why it is doing well, what the plan is etc - if they can't explain it properly, this is a big red flag and they likely have fallen for it too.
Look out for how someone talks to you about it - is it emotionally driven, does it make you excited? scared to miss out? - This is exactly when you need to step back, breathe and ask yourself if you are thinking correctly. Emotional decision making is not a good thing here, and then ask if they are intentionally trying to get an emotional reaction out of you? (see the above - FOMO, get rich quick etc)
Is there any room for nuance? Are you able to discuss the potential cons or risk? If you are laughed at, or harassed, others are told to ignore you (he won't be getting rich, weak hands, pathetic seller) - this is a huge sign that you are investing in something where no other thoughts are allowed. The reason for this, once you are out the bubble - logic returns and you see the smoke and mirrors for what they are. PnD groups work like a cult, only one form of thinking is allowed, everything else is censored.
Did this come out of nowhere, do I even know anything about this? If you don't know anything about it, except it makes money, don't invest in it. This is a terrible decision for two reasons. Firstly, and most obviously, you have asymmetric information - you have no idea why and what you are buying, therefore can't make an informed decision - only an emotional one. Equally, this kind of thing pushes panicked, emotional selling. When you don't know fundamental reasons why you invest in something, when the price dips you will sell. Why? because when your brain asks you the question 'shit it is dropping, what do we do?!' - your logical brain won't have an answer, because you never gave it the information to form one. This second part is more relevant to regular investments, not PnDs of course, but is worth bearing in mind before you invest in anything.
Was the coin relatively stagnant, or has it dipped recently? PnDs typically target coins which haven't moved much recently, or have lower trading volume, this allows for a much easier spiking of the price due to a small change in demand equalling a big change in price. If you look at the charts and it was doing nothing until this big flurry of activity - you are being taken for a ride.
Look for the news, if it is pumping, don't listen to people inside the group - search for reasons why something is pumping. If you can't find anything of value, there probably isn't anything, and you are gambling on emotional decisions.
The opportunity finds you, you don't find the opportunity. Getting rich off 'undervalued' coins, or finding a hidden gem is not easy. They are hidden for a reason. If someone is coming to you with this, remember they are selling. You are buying.
If someone does approach you, talk to someone else outside of the bubble - find another group e.g. CC, or other investors - talk to them, get outside perspective before investing.
look for examples of populist sentiment. Do you hear things about an other? - e.g. haters, those missing out who are jealous. Are you made to feel like you are part of a special group? The ones with insider information? This is a lie, it is very very common manipulation within populist movements, cults etc - to create a narrative of an other to entrench tribalism within the group. This is done to make you switch your brain off, to rule on emotion.
is there a recent comparable story that was successful? e.g. GME (yes this isn't the same at all in reality, but the story being sold is - or at least plays on the hype of GME). If there is, you are being played. The real opportunity, just like the hidden gem, is the first one. When people tell you this is happening again, they are simply using the positive news from one case and applying it to their own - often because it lacks any actual, real, tangible reason for succeeding or being a good investment.
I fell for a PnD, what next?
Have you sold yet - No? Are you in profit? Sell. Whilst you still can. Greed will tell you not to, and perhaps you can eek out a little more money. But you are gambling, and gambling extremely high risk against people trying to take all your money.
Yes, you have sold. Did you make a profit? Yes - great. You are still a an idiot, just a lucky one. Tell yourself that. There is a difference between opportunist traders taking advantage of PnDs and someone getting lucky and getting out before it collapses. Do not confuse the two. The first group know what they are doing (and they may still lose, but they are aware of the real risk). You are fucking lucky. Don't do it again. So count your blessings, go through the same process of learning about PnDs and begin to understand why you fell for it, how to avoid it in future and realise you are up - you won. Don't go back in, you are asking to lose.
Yes you have sold? Did you make profit? No? Ok, this is normal - 90% + of people doing this will end up in the same situation.
Recognise and accept your mistake. Do not feel ashamed of it, it is ok. You were played, it happens to all of us in our lives at some point.
Step away from whatever device you used to invest. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO WIN IT BACK RIGHT AWAY. You will most likely make things worse, investing again on emotions - even worse emotions now, shame, anger, disbelief.
Talk to the important people in your life if you feel comfortable, if not, come here or to other anonymous groups for support. It is important to share what happened, to vent emotionally whatever it is you feel.
Realise it is only money, even if gambled way more than you should have done, long term you will get out of this. Focus on other areas of your life for the time being - emotional investment, fulfilment and development - seek out things which may centre to your emotions again, whatever that may be - getting out in nature, cooking, reading, adrenaline sports - whatever the shit you need, do it.
Consider who, if anyone needs to know. Did you borrow from you and your wife's joint account? Accept a loan from a mate? These people need to know the truth. Do not hide it and hope to win it back. Tell the truth. They deserve it.
Do not repeat the same actions, if you want to win long term from this - you need a different approach. Step away from the high stakes casino and figure out long term strategies to make money.
Learn to diversify and manage risk. You are taking a huge gamble going all in on something - even if it isn't a scam, you need to protect yourself through diversifying your investments. Get rich quick schemes are the fastest way to lose money.
Educate yourself on these behaviours - I would recommend 'Thinking Fast and Slow' by Daniel Kahnemann as a personal favourite. This book helps to look at and address the biases that make up our emotional decision making, and learn how to recognise these and instead 'think slow'. You won't regret reading it.
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