Hello people of gta6, this is something I've been working on for a while now, it's my ideal concept for Rockstar Games' future title, Grand Theft Auto VI. This is a long post however, you have been forewarned. So, with all that being said, hope you guys enjoy it! Let's begin with an overview: Grand Theft Auto VI is the biggest Rockstar title yet, approached with the most advanced systems ever. GTA VI will be released on Xbox Series X, PS5, and PC only, with the online mode (more on that in the next part) releasing a month after release. The game itself takes place in 3 key locations (technically 4):
Vice City (Expanded and Enhanced), in the fictional state of Flores (based off Florida)
Carcer City, in the fictional state of Garrison (based off Detroit, Philadelphia, and Chicago)
The People's Republic of Del Castillo (Based off of Cuba and Brazil, respectively)
Liberty City (VERY linear, certain portions of story playable)
Vice City:
Vice City has been greatly expanded, and now includes 2 other key locations based off of Orlando and Tampa: Mamba and Paxville. Paxville is based off of Orlando, and includes 2 different theme parks: Fun-World & AnimalDome (both based off Disney World/Universal Studios and SeaWorld). Fun-World is a one-stop shop for having the most fun you can have. From fun-rides to the weird candy the man near the entrance sells, players can ride rollercoasters, take pictures with mascots, and do side-missions from the management and employees of Fun-World. AnimalDome is a bit more based on SeaWorld and appeals to players that want animals in the game, whether in hunting, fishing, or even exploring. A new side-activity you can do is hunt for legendary animals (all across the map) and donate them to AnimalDome for rewards. It ranges from lost fish in lakes and oceans near untouched waterfalls, all the way to rare birds in forests alike. The landscapes such as the marshlands are similar to Bayou N.W.A from RDR2, with alligators and crocodiles alike in wetlands, with many other secrets to uncover. One key icon is the Gator Chain, which is based off the real life Florida Keys, 8 islands pulled together by a single highway. Another key icon is the Green Pastures, which is based off of the real life Everglades, a subtropical wetland in the heart of south Florida, filled with all kinds of natural society. A new air force base, Fort Kayak, is also included within the state as well.
Carcer City:
The newest addition to the series, Carcer City is supposed to be gloomy and dark, that of rivaling Vice City's vibrant feeling with the lights shining at night. The roads are narrow and sleek, and are very easy to get lost in because of the grid zig-zag layout. At day, you find old factories blowing out dark smoke, with lower class people getting ready to go work in their old crusty cars. The feeling heavily changes at night when you find the darker parts of the city emerged. Get yourself downtown and on rooftops of buildings, you'll find yourself feeling like Batman looking down at all of Gotham City.
The People's Republic of Del Castillo:
This is solely an island based on the likes of Guarma. On one side, you have favelas in a small, compact, linear city with a mini-airstrip for an airport, while it slowly moves onto tropical forests on the other side of the island. Free roaming is fine, but be careful as there are others who are watching you. Be aware at all times no matter what. As for Liberty City, a small portion is only playable for certain missions only, incredibly linear.
Gameplay:
The gameplay is similar to that of a mix between IV/V (realism and arcadey-ness). The car feeling is similar to IV when crashing and whatnot, but also contains elements of V's driving. Interaction with NPCs is more realistic and grounded. Walk around in a suit and people ask if you have somewhere important to be, walk around in punk clothing and get trash thrown at you. Red Dead Redemption 2's interaction system with NPCs returns with a new change: multiple dialogue options. Say you choose to greet an NPC and ask if they need help with anything. They might say yes and you could be given with two choices: a) "Sure, I'll help out!" or b) "Alright, well, hope it gets done then!". You can choose the way the characters are. Aside from antagonizing NPCs, you can pave a path for these characters depending on the way you want. Wanted levels return, as well as the 6th star. Here is the new way the wanted system would react when given stars:
1 Star: Cops Chase You, Ram into Vehicle if needed. Given a ticket ($25, $50, $75, $100, or $125) depending on what the charges were, and the star is dropped.
2 Star: Cops use tasers, use batons and whatnot to attack. You can get "Busted" if they catch you.
3 Star: Angry Cops chase you and try to take you down, no exceptions.
4 Star: Same as 3 stars except more cops are deployed and more aggression is applied.
5 Star: NOOSE deployed.
6 Star: Military and State-Guard deployed, locking off all airports (unless broken into or in the air already). Very hard to survive.
A new gameplay experience that is added is backpacks or duffel bags. This will not be realistic in the sense where it will weigh down your character and slow them down. You can store different things in either one now, whether it be snacks for refilling health, armor, or other materials you can find. You can find collectibles across the map and store them in there. Another returning feature is the stats: energy, driving, and flying. Energy encompasses the other stats such as stamina, strength, etc. The more energy you can max out, the more stamina and more health you have. Driving and flying are the same as before.
Story:
In terms of story, I think Project Americas' narrative based off of the leaks seem very interesting, and also makes for interesting scenarios gameplay-wise during the smuggling missions. Another feature I 100% want back is heists. They were done amazingly in V with their setups and then finales where you had somewhat of a variety was fun for the replay ability. The same can also be said for the Diamond Casino And Resort Heist and its diverse offerings. For characters, in terms of playable ones, I would enjoy seeing 2 protagonists this time around, maybe a male and female if possible. The game could end with 3 endings, one where our characters become enemies, one where they remain neutral (friends), and one where they begin a relationship or something like that. Other characters could be possibly a funny crooked lawyer (think Saul Goodman), maybe another Phil Cassidy-esque character as well if we're heading back to Vice (IF that is).
Last Topic, Time Period (?):
So, this is the big one. I'm having some trouble picking what time period might fit well for my ideal game. Normally, I would say the 1980s, but even then some people wouldn't really enjoy it, so I decided to take a look at past games and see where this game might fit well in terms of time period:
With this being said, I think one time period that could totally work is the 2000s, but instead of 2008 like IV or 2001, I say mid 2000s: somewhere around 2004 - 2006, with some flashback missions dating back to the 1980s (1984, 1987, or 1989). Now, the internet as we know it wasn't fully developed like how it is today, but it was still actively rising. Funny internet videos and downloading was the norm during that time. Rockstar, with its satire can actively parody the internet as it did with IV and V. Instead of using the internet to buy cars, players now actively have to go to dealerships, each with their own specific kind of cars (legendary motorsport with their fancy cars, warstock with heavy vehicles, etc). Now, for the flashback missions. Thinking realistically, it's almost impossible for Rockstar to create different models and whatnot for two different eras. Now, what I PERSONALLY can see Rockstar doing, if they do decide to go down the flashback route, I can definitely see them create a VERY linear mission-design for a small portion of the map where a mission takes place, and changing some of the buildings and billboards to fit the era (in this case, the 1980s). For example, take Vice City for example. There could be a portion of the city where the buildings are abandoned, roads are cracked up, etc. There could be a story mission where it takes place in 1984, in that exact portion of the city, where the roads are freshly paved, and the buildings are lively and booming. RDR2's jump from 1899 to 1907 is justified, in the sense that most of the map is just environments without as many buildings as GTA. So yeah, that's about it. Hopefully you guys enjoyed it, I have some more stuff on the way! If you like to add some new ideas to the existing ones or add on ideas in general, please do so.
I have been trying to improve this list from people's feedback, so if there is something you think should be on here or something that shouldn't let me know
Being able to grab people and put them in the trunk of your car, Like in Sleeping Dogs.
Being able to download and play games on your phone and consoles in your house like GTA San Andreas along with arcade machines like GTA 4.
Having a dedicated map app on your phone or GPS in your car instead of in the hud for a cleaner look.
Being able to buy houses and apartments in single player.
Being able to buy pets and look after them (like chop) but you can also have Cats, Birds & More plus be able to own multiple pets.
Destructible buildings that get repaired overtime.
More vehicles alongside cars, push bikes, motorbikes, planes, helicopters and boats. Like skateboarding, surfboarding, horse riding and wingsuiting.
Bring back fast food places and Gyms along with the ability to get fat by eating at fast food places & skinny by working out at the gym.
Being able to surrender past 1 star and getting sent to prison or get busted and sent to prison, If you go to prison, you have to spend 10 real minutes in there. Once the time is up you are free to leave or you can stay and do prison activities like starting a gang or working out and even doing missions for inmates for rep. Make it an optional thing in the settings.
Being able to go to the airport and travel to other countries, maybe like being able to go to Liberty City, Vice City and Los Santos.
Music/radio on your phone, so u can listen to music when your walking.
Be able buy different phones, like starting with a flip phone and then when you get more money you can buy smartphones.
Bring back the Paramedic, Firefighter, and Vigilante (Police) missions again.
Being able to be on the right side of the law (Police/Fire & EMS) in a subsequent play-through instead of a bank robbecivilian.
The ability to talk to people and interact with them, but also be able to have conversations with them and have friendships. You can have best friends, girlfriends, boyfriends, wife, husband and enemies.
GTA lV's physics, like being able to pick up objects and throw them at people.
GTA San Andreas's Ability to drive Trains.
Ability to go fishing either on the dock or on a boat.
Ability to go Camping.
Ingame Cheat System where you unlock cheats by playing more of the game.
Lots of overpowered cheats that makes console players feel like their playing with mods.
Being able to rob banks and jewelry stores alongside gas stations in free roam.
Casino's like GTA Online but in Singleplayer.
HaiFacial Hair grows naturally overtime and depending on how long your hair is, as to what hair cuts you can get. Like in RDR2.
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Grand Theft Auto has since been a game title favourite ever since the release of Grand Theft Auto III back in 2001, however the series did not begin there. Back in 1997, David Jones and Mike Dailly created the first and original title of the game series Grand Theft Auto, it had 16 bit graphics despite running on a 32 bit console unit and was inspired by films such as Eat My Dust, Smokey and the Bandit and of course the actual film named "Grand Theft Auto". Most of those films were set in the 1960s and 1970s which inspired Dan Houser to create Grand Theft Auto: London 1969 with freeware mission pack Grand Theft Auto: London 1961. It wasn't until the release of Grand Theft Auto III back in 2001 when the game series became popular due to the 3D graphics and the third person view instead of the original 16 bit graphics and bird's eye view. After the release of Grand Theft Auto: Vice City, celebrities have made numerous appearances including Samuel L. Jackson, Guns N' Rose's Axl Rose and the real life radio DJ Jeffrey Crawford "Lazlow" Jones. Over the years since the developments of the game series, there has been a lot of conspiracy theories such as video games promoting violence however there's never been any solid evidence supporting those facts. Both Dan & Sam Houser have explained many times before that all games have mature themes and are made for players aged 18 and above, the games were not made for young children and the parents should be considered responsible for their children's actions. Whilst Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas was in development, Sam wanted the game to be more realistic and decided that the main protagonist Carl "CJ" Johnson would have the ability to have a relationship with other characters in the game meaning all players can have an in-game girlfriend and Sam Houser wanted to include a mini sex game where CJ would have to try and get his girlfriend to have an orgasm in order to improve his relationship level. Sam Houser decided to remove the mini sex game as a feature after his colleagues warned him that such content would force the video game title to be given a "adults only" content rating which would lower the sales rating in stock. Patrick Wildenborg a video game player in Holland who owned one of the original manufactured copies of Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas decided to create modifications for the game from his desktop computer using coding hacks, whilst creating these modifications, Wildenborg noticed two human figures having what appeared as sexual intercourse. Wildenborg then realized that Rockstar Games had a hidden mini sex game dubbed "Hot Coffee" and decided to upload a video on YouTube exposing the hidden in-game content. Ever since the "Hot Coffee" exposure by Wildenborg, Sam Houser was forced to change the age rating to "adults only" content on all games even though Sam Houser already explained that he asked his development team to remove the feature and that Wildenborg used coding hacks through his PC to expose the deleted content. Due to Devin Moore's murders and the "Hot Coffee" exposure, Sam Houser was taken to court but the case was later dismissed and Sam Houser agreed to have all remaining games removed from all retailers' stocks so the hidden in-game would be permanently removed and replaced with a newer version of the same game only without "Hot Coffee" included. Sam Houser has since been allowed to keep the "mature theme" content rating instead of replacing the age rating to "adults only" keeping Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas a game title success. There two universes existing in the GTA game series where 3D universe aka the "GTA 3 era" and the HD universe exist. It was the 3D universe that made the game franchise as popular as it is to this day as we speak. Because of GTA's success over the years since the release of Grand Theft Auto III, other game series with similar vehicle privileges were developed. In 2000 before Grand Theft Auto III was created, Reflections Interactive and Infogrames released the second installment of Driver with the privileges of being able to enteexit all vehicles and 2003, two years after Grand Theft Auto III was released, Activision decided to release True Crime: The Streets of LA which allowed video game players to not only enteexit all vehicles but also to use weapons against all enemies. Unlike the GTA game series, the storylines in the True Crime game series were focused on police officers' perspectives instead of the criminals. True Crime: The Streets of LA became popular over time that in 2005 Activision decided to release True Crime: New York City but later that year, halfway through the development of True Crime: Hong-Kong, Activision decided to focus on other projects and instead Square Enix took over and renamed the game as "Sleeping Dogs" with Wei Shen being the main protagonist instead of the reprised role of Nick Kang. In 2005, a year before the PlayStation 3 console unit was released, Saints Row was developed by Volition and THQ for the Xbox 360. Saints Row and Grand Theft Auto IV were then game title rivals as Saints Row became popular around the south-east Asian countries. The GTA game series once again won over all video games players in 2013 after Rockstar Games released yet again another GTA game title, Grand Theft Auto V which not only had the original single player mode but an online player mode with more customizations options for the online playable character. Ever since Grand Theft Auto V was made available for the PlayStation 4 console unit, Grand Theft Auto Online now has downloadable content each month/year and has an in-game casino allowing players to gamble with real life money as well GTA$. The in-game casino is named The Diamond Casino & Resort. You can purchase a casino membership and buy a luxury penthouse suite. Unlike the other high-end residential properties, the penthouse suite only has a 10 vehicle garage to store your cars. Gameloft a mobile phone game developer company in France was inspired by the GTA game series that they decided to release a similar game series for mobile phones worldwide under the name "Gangstar". So far there has been a total of eight game releases from 2006-2017. The most popular title was Gangstar Rio: City of Saints. Grand Game Valley created a game for Android phones named "Grand City Thug Crime Gangster", the font used in the name is the same as Grand Theft Auto III and the game features similar graphics to Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas. For years and even today, many GTA fans have had a worldwide debate whether or not Claude Speed from Grand Theft Auto II aka "GTA2" is the same Claude from Grand Theft Auto III as both protagonists have similar body features as well as names. Rockstar Games confirmed though that Claude from Grand Theft Auto III and Claude Speed from GTA2 are both two separate men as Claude Speed exists in the 16 bit 2D universe with the bird's eye view that's set in 2013 and Claude from Grand Theft Auto III exists in the 3D universe set in 2001 meaning that if both men were the same person, Claude would have been a whole lot older in GTA3 and would look a lot more different, that being said, Claude Speed from GTA2 is vocal (as shown in the game trailer scenes) and Claude from GTA3 is mute (referencing CJ referring Claude to as "mute asshole" and "the snake without a tongue"). The additional Grand Theft Auto game titles "Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories", "Grand Theft Auto: Vice City Stories" and "Grand Theft Auto: Episodes From Liberty City" are all not related to the five main game titles, all three games are considered non-canon despite some of the characters appearing in the all five main game titles. In Grand Theft Auto IV, an easter egg hinted that Claude, Tommy Vercetti & Carl "CJ" Johnson were all dead even though all characters are still alive. Since the announcement of Grand Theft Auto VI being in development, rumours have been said that the new protagonist may be female and that the game is set in Vice City with an extra island based in Brazil. The sixth installment of the game series will be released around 2020/2021. Michael De Santa, Franklin Clinton & Trevor Phillips are the only GTA characters that actually resemble their voice actors.
How to determine which gyms are eligible from EX Raids: Findings from a worldwide analysis of 1000+ EX Raid locations
Updates as of 2018-01-16
Magicarpic PMed me details of a Ukraine EX raid which had a leisure=park polygon created 15th July 2016. This sets a new earliest date.
MzRed found EX raids corresponding with landuse=grassland
Montagemz found an EX raid corresponding with landuse=farmyard
0Geert0 found an EX raid corresponding with natural=heath
Groschenprinz05 found an EX raid corresponding with landuse=vineyard
Flitzer09 found an EX raid corresponding with landuse=farmland
GizzlySGD found an EX raid corresponding with landuse=orchard
Given the complete lack of evidence for leisure=nature_reserve even being a nesting tag, I have removed it from the query. It is a much more common tag than orchard, vineyard, heath, etc., yet we still haven't had a single person with a leisure=nature_reserve EX raid. (Edit 2018-01-27: Fixed an issue where I had left part of the leisure=nature_reserve code in)
Last week I posted an analysis of 49 EX raid locations in Western Australia. The key findings were:
100% of EX raids from December, 2017 in Western Australia corresponded with OpenStreetMap tags associated with nests (e.g. leisure=park, landuse=recreation_ground)
In three instances the gym was slightly outside the polygon of the park from OSM, but if the park was overlayed with level 20 s2 cells then the gym was inside these cells. I proposed that Niantic stores information about parks as level 20 s2 cells and this is why these three gyms were eligible for EX raids.
There still remained some follow up questions:
When is the OSM data for EX raids sourced from?
What is the full range of OSM tags that can lead to EX raids?
Was the level 20 s2 cell overlap just a coincidence with those three gyms from Western Australia, or could this be confirmed with other EX raid gyms?
To answer those questions I have spent a good chunk of the last week performing a larger analysis of EX raid locations from around the world. The following post describes my key findings.
Note #1: Throughout this article where I refer to ‘parks’, I am generally referring to the entire collection of tags on OSM which lead to nests, including landuse=recreation_ground, leisure=garden, landuse=grass, etc. If I want to refer to leisure=park polygons specifically then I will use that term.
Note #2: This research will only deal with the crietria that allows a non-sponsored gym to be eligible to host EX raids. It does not deal with the selection mechanism (i.e. which gym is chosen each week).
2.0 Methodology
2.1 Data collection
Data was collected about EX raids from locations worldwide. This was sourced through collections previously posted on Reddit, local Discord groups and data sent to me as response to a thread I posted a few days ago (both publically and via PMs). The following table shows the number of gym locations from each country/region. The distribution of gym locations is also shown in the following graphic: https://i.imgur.com/QnL1vPe.png
Region
Number of EX Raid Locations
Canada
248
Australia
224
Hong Kong
140
Singapore
134
United States
130
United Kingdom
61
France
52
Brazil
29
Germany
22
Belgium
15
United Arab Emirates
5
Total
1060
The dataset included non-sponsored gyms only. Dates of EX raids ranged from 30 September, 2017 to 25 December, 2017 (encompassing all non-sponsored EX raid dates prior to the latest January wave). 1010 out of the 1060 were for dates ranged from 11 November, 2017 to 25 December, 2017.
2.2 Analysis of parks
Data was exported from OSM using overpass-turbo. A list of the exported tags is available here: http://overpass-turbo.eu/s/vs3. Data was exported from one-month intervals (1 Mar 2016, 1 Apr 2016, 1 May 2016 … 1 Jan 2017). Data was also exported from the date of the latest nest update (22 Jan 2017), the date of the visual map data in the game (13 Aug 2017) and current (1 Jan 2018).
I analysed gyms using each month’s data via a point-in-polygon method using R (see description here). For gyms which failed the point-in-polygon test I checked level 20 s2 cells using osmcoverer by MzRed which was being developed as I was completing my analysis. (At that stage osmcoverer did not have gym marker capability or I would have just used osmcoverer instead of R). For any gyms which showed a difference in the monthly data (e.g. fell inside a park polygon using data from Jul 2016 but did not fall inside a polygon using data from Jun 2016) the data was manually investigated on OSM to check for the specific date resulting in that change.
3.0 Findings
3.1: Changes in EX raid eligibility criteria over time
My previous analysis only included data from December 2017, whereas now I had collected data dating back to 30 September, 2017. After analysing which gyms fell inside or outside parks, it became clear that Niantic changed the way that non-sponsored gyms were chosen for EX Raids between the 20 October EX raid and the 11 November EX raid.
EX Raid Date
% Parks
% Non-Parks
30 Sep/1 Oct
41%
59%
20 October
27%
73%
11 November
100%
0%
18 November
100%
0%
26 November
100%
0%
3 December
100%
0%
11 December
100%
0%
18 December
100%
0%
25 December
100%
0%
Since the change, 100% of non-sponsored gyms can be explained using OSM tags, without exception. This could also explain why there was a three-week break in non-sponsored raids; during this time Niantic was modifying their selection algorithm to target parks.
Future research will need to pay attention to EX raid release dates, as the difference between pre-November and post-November raids does affect analysis. A number of comments in my previous thread provided examples of EX raids not in parks, however follow ups confirmed that these invites were for raids in SeptembeOctober. Additionally, there is no guarantee that Niantic will not change the formula again.
Implications: Unfortunately, if your town's park areas were not adequately mapped in OSM and you don’t have sponsored gyms then it appears you are out of luck for EX raids. Despite having over 1000 EX raid locations from November and December, not a single instance was found of a non-sponsored EX raid occurring without a corresponding OSM tag.
3.2: Use of level 20 s2 cells to determine if gyms are inside parks
In my previous thread I established the idea that the boundaries of parks are defined by level 20 s2 cells. This was used to account for three gyms in Western Australia which had EX raids despite falling just outside the polygon of the parks on OSM.
I can confirm after looking at the expanded dataset that this was not a coincidence. In total there were 40 gyms (out of 1060) which fit this circumstance: they could only be explained based on s2 cell overlap. A few examples from these 40 gyms are shown below (maps generated using osmcoverer by MzRed).
I am confident enough to say that this confirms that level 20 cells are used to determine whether gyms are in parks.
Implications: Previous tools which have looked solely at whether gyms lay within polygons might have excluded a small proportion of eligible gyms. Based on this dataset, ~4% of gyms would not have been predicted to be EX raid eligible if level 20 s2 cells were not considered.
3.3: Date range for OSM data
Establishing the earliest date of OSM data is straightforward: look for locations that have had EX raids, and then look for when the corresponding OSM feature was created. There are three gyms which were able to place the earliest starting date in July, 2016:
Finding the oldest possible date of the data is expected to be more challenging. It requires an EX raid to be held at a place that has had the tag removed, either because the park itself has been removed or because the park was plotted incorrectly and has been corrected. Finding the oldest possible date for the data therefore depends on luck.
LimboMon had already discovered a possible date of August, 2016 for the OSM data based on a Singapore gym which had landuse=greenfield. At the time it was difficult to assert this with confidence for two reasons: firstly,landuse=greenfield was a tag that had not previously been linked to nests; secondly, not enough data had been collected to clearly establish that 100% of EX raids correspond to OSM tags.
Using a separate line of data I have been able to prove that the EX raid data pre-dates the nest data (January 22, 2017). Towers Baptist Church in Canada (49.142106, -123.109827) held an EX raid on 18th December, 2017. Until 6 January 2017 the gym was covered by a leisure=park polygon which covered the church, however after this date a user modified the park polygon to exclude the church building. Compare the level 20 overlay before 6 Jan 2017 and after 6 Jan 2017.
In my last analysis thread, DrKillerZA provided me coordinates of an EX raid in South Africa which was at a golf course. The polygon for the golf course had been modified in November 2016 which removed the gym from the range of the golf course (compare the level 20 overlay before 17 Nov 2016 and after 17 Nov 2016). I was recently able to confirm that the EX raid at this gym occurred on December 18, which means it was subject to the parks requirement for non-sponsored EX raids, and hence the OSM data must be prior to 17th November 2016.
Finally, I can also reconfirm the Singapore data. In addition to Jin Fu Gong Temple (1.340732, 103.690463), which held an EX raid on 11 November 2017, there is now also 南洋公园 (1.340382, 103.690883) which held an EX raid on 11 December, 2017. Both of these gyms were in range of a landuse=greenfield tag that was removed 31 August 2016 when a nursing home was built on the site. There are no other nearby tags which could trigger EX raid status, even when considering level 20 s2 cells.
Based on the above evidence we can conclude that the date range for the OSM data used for EX raids is from somewhere between 9th July 2016 and 31st August 2016. It is likely more towards the July date, given that park additions are more common than park removals and therefore the earliest possible OSM date is easier to locate than the latest possible OSM date.
Implications: OSM received a flurry of attention in Dec 2016-Jan 2017 on Silph Road when the links between OSM and Pokemon Go became increasingly clear. This led to a lot of players checking out OSM and mapping parks in their area to attempt to get nests. Unfortunately, the EX raid data pre-dates this. Players may have been targeting gyms incorrectly believing that they can host EX raids when they actually cannot.
3.4: OSM tags associated with EX Raids
My initial study showed that leisure=park and landuse=recreation_ground were the two most common tags associated with non-sponsored EX raids. I wanted to use the larger dataset to explore which additional tags can be proven to lead to EX raids. For this stage of the analysis, I first removed every EX raid that could be explained using leisure=park or landuse=recreation_ground (including those which were covered by level 20 s2 cells). This accounted for 912/1010 gyms. For the remaining gyms, I manually checked the corresponding way(s) on OSM.
The following table shows the raw number of gyms which SOLELY matched each tag and no other.
Edit 1: Added landuse=farmyard example mentioned here. Edit 2: Some people have asked about parks, etc. tagged as relations instead of ways (rel[leisure=park] instead of way[leisure=park]). 100% of the gyms I tested could be explained only using ways. If you find an example of an EX raid gym that requires relations to explain it, let me know. Edit 3:MzRed provided me two examples of gyms which can only be explained using natural=grassland. I have added this to the table and have modified the overpass-turbo query.
This confirms the ability of 11 tags (including leisure=park and landuse=recreational_ground) to generate EX raids. The lack of results for the last six OSM tags does not mean that they cannot spawn EX raids. These tags may be rare, may not contain gyms, or may not be in well-frequented areas (or possibly all three).
Implications: It appears that most tags that lead to nests can lead to EX raids, however keep in mind that EX raids use older data than current nests so there is not a 1:1 correlation.
4.0 Application of new findings
4.1 Western Australian gyms: A case study
I have a copy of location details for all gyms in Perth, Mandurah and Bunbury, Western Australia. Using these I had previously used the point-in-polygon method using OSM data from 22 January, 2017 to create a map of predicted EX raid gyms. However the latest studies have shown that I would have had some false positives (gyms matched as positive when due to older-than-expected data they should’ve been negative) and some false negatives (gyms outside polygons but inside level 20 s2 cells).
I re-ran the gym prediction tool on my Perth gyms dataset using OSM data from different dates, and with and without accounting for s2 cells, resulting in the following numbers:
OSM source date
Gyms using OSM polygon method (incorrect)
Gyms using s2 cells method (correct)
22 Jan 2017
956
1082
31 Aug 2016
932
1058
9 Jul 2016
928
1054
Overall there was a net increase in the number of eligible gyms, thanks to the extra gyms which were bordering parks and fell inside level 20 s2 cells. There were 24-28 gyms, however, which do not count due to the OSM data being older than I initially anticipated.
4.2 How to analyse your own map data
For this to work, you will need a:
A csv of gyms in your town/suburb
A copy of osmcoverer
The csv needs to be structured with three columns: name, latitude and longitude. Do not include a header row. Example:
Clean and Green Plaque,1.340817,103.743898 Lookout Tower at Yishun Pond,1.425504,103.840164 Autobot Evac,1.254207,103.821722 Clock Tower at Tampines Central Park,1.354006,103.936181
If any of the gym names have commas, either remove those or enclose the gym name in quotation marks. Latitudes and longitudes need to be exact given the precision of level 20 s2 cells – use the Ingress Portal or another source to obtain exact latitudes and longitudes.
Go to http://overpass-turbo.eu/s/vs3. Zoom to your town/suburb and click run. This will collect the OSM data. The linked query is backdated to 2016-07-10. Confirmed areas will show up as blue, unconfirmed areas will show up as grey. Export the OSM data; Click “Export” then “Download as GeoJSON”.
Open Command Prompt and navigate to the osmcoverer directory. Use the following command:
osmcoverer -markers=gyms.csv input.geojson
osmcoverer will output a file called “markers_within_features.csv” which will contain a list of all gyms inside level 20 s2 cells of OSM parks, etc. It will also generate a .geojson file which has the park polygons, s2 cells and colour-coded markers. This can be visualised by going to http://geojson.io/ and opening the export file. osmcoverer has more options such as being able to generate a level 12 s2 cell overlay for gyms, so it is worth checking out.
5.0 Directions for further research
Furthering restricting the OSM date range: People could check OSM tags of their local EX raid gyms to see if it is possible to further limit the possible date range for OSM data. I would be interested in hearing if you think you have found an EX raid gym with a tag that wasn’t created until after 9 July 2016, or with a tag that was removed before 31 August 2016.
Finding additional OSM tags: People could check OSM tags of their local EX raid gyms to see if anyone can find proof of tags such as natural=heath or leisure=nature_reserve. Berlin players could check gyms within the boundary=physiogeographical mega-nest, which might be able to have EX raids at gyms even when no other OSM tags are present.
Monitoring Niantic’s selection processes over time to check for changes: Niantic paused their non-sponsored EX raid releases in October while they were modifying their system to target parks. Was the missed 1.5 weeks of EX raid invites over DecembeJanuary just a side-effect of Christmas, or has there been another modification? We should definitely keep an eye out for whether Niantic expands to non-park areas again and/or switches to newer OSM data for EX raids.
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